Post on 11-Jun-2020
Arthur D. Little (M) Sdn BhdOffice Suite, 19-13-2Level 13, UOA Centre19 Jalan Pinang50450 Kuala LumpurMalaysia
Gwadar Port Master Plan- Implications for Energy Sector Development
25-26 April 2006
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Gwadar port master plan
Gwadar port current situation
Port development potential
Industrial development potential
Traffic forecasts
Port zoning plan
Development program 2006-2021
Investment opportunities
Outline
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One multi-purpose terminal, 600 m berthing space 5 multipurpose cranes, various yard equipment, 2 tugboats, 2 pilot boats, power, waterSome building construction & dredging still on-going
Gwadar port – current situation
The Gwadar case – Master plan project
In collaboration with our engineering partners, we have just completed the draft master-plan for the further development of Gwadar port
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Chapter 1: Introduction
Chapter 2: Gwadar’s macro environment
Chapter 3: Gwadar current developments
Sections / Chapters of the Master Plan
Physical Development
Plans
Gwadar's Development
PotentialCurrent Situation
The (draft) master plan document is structured in five main sections and thirteen chapters, plus various annexes including drawings
Traffic Forecasts & Development
Strategies
Chapter 4: Assessment of Gwadar port development potential
Chapter 5: Assessment of Gwadar industrial development potential
Chapter 6: Gwadar industrial development scenarios
Chapter 7: Port / cargo traffic forecasts
Chapter 8: Port & industrial development strategies and recommendations
Chapter 9: Port land requirements and zoning plan (50 years)
Chapter 10: 15 years physical development program
1 2 3 4
Introduction
Implementation Management
Chapter 11: Operating models, funding program & financial analysis
Chapter 12: Institutional and organizational development
Chapter 13: Marketing program
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Annexes contain details of various analyses and various lay-out drawings and concept drawings
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The city development Master Plan will help to transform Gwadar city into an economic focal point for Balochistan.
Oil refinery & storage
Railway terminal
Main access roads
Special industrial zone
Residential area
Fishing jetty
Tourism
Residential area
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1
2
7
8
9
10
International airport
Export processing
zone4
Fishing jetty
3
5
Gurab housing scheme
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5
Gwadar Master Plan
Efficient completion of all key projects will be critical to reinforce GoP’s commitment and facilitate Gwadar port development
Gwadar current developments – Development plans Gwadar city
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Sources of traffic lie primarily in local industrial development and national ExIm, with transhipment becoming more important in the longer term
Gwadar potential Implications
Transit trade with CARs has little potential. Cargo from Xinjang may have potential
Good potential for Gwadar, but only in longer term, when ExImvolumes become large
National ExIm offers sizable potential for Gwadar, due to growing national demand
Key lever to accelerate and sustain rapid port development
Focus efforts on other port traffic contributors for now
Relying on transhipment to realize port ambitions is not advisable
Stay competitive to capture and support national ExIm traffic
Pro-actively develop Gwadar’s local industrial economy to help drive port development
Transit trade
Transhipment
National ExIm
Local industrial development
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2
3
4
Gwadar port development – Sources of port traffic
Summary
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Role models
• Integrated industrial port currently under construction, TA from Rotterdam• Industrial investments secured: oil and gas supply, refinery, steel mill,
fertilizer, poly-propylene, methanol, possibly aluminum and poly-ethylene
Gwadar port development – Role models for integrated development
There are many relevant examples of recent and successful integrated port-industrial developments
Sohar, Oman
Shenzhen, Dubai
Gwangyang
Rotterdam• Fully integrated port and industrial planning• Port develops industrial areas and pro-actively drives industrial investment• Very wide industrial base, but chemicals & petrochemicals dominate
• Rapid and visionary development• Built on SEZ and FZ concepts: exceptional incentives & facilities &
investment promotion• Very successful in rapidly attracting wide range of investments
• Port development since 1986• Built on heavy industries: oil refining, petrochemicals, fertilizer, steel mill,
LNG• Soon after combined with special industrial estates for foreign investors
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Specific industries will leverage Gwadar’s specific set of comparative advantages
Competitive advantages
Ship related industries e.g. ship repair
Food processing, fish-processing
Export industries that meet Gulf states’ import needs e.g. automotive, consumer goods
Labour intensive sectors e.g. textiles
Oil & gas related processing and downstream industries e.g. petrochemicals
Land intensive industrial complexes e.g. steel mill
Minerals processing e.g. building materials, cement
Industries that require large ExIm quantities and corresponding ship sizes e.g. oil refining
Industrial development opportunities
Proximity to major shipping lanes
Some agricultural resources, incl coastline
Proximity to fast growing Gulf states
Low labour cost
Proximity to oil & gas resources
Greenfield, low land cost
Some mineral resources
Short access channel, deep draft, short turnaround times
Gwadar development potential – Gwadar comparative advantages
Export-oriented manufacturingTax-free status for new investments + incentives + port proximity
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Eleven priority industries that can leverage on Gwadar’s competitiveness and contribute more strongly to its development have been identified
Source: UNIDO, UN International Trade Centre, Pakistan Statistics Division, Arthur D. Little Analysis
Com
petit
ive
Alig
nmen
t
Low
High
HighEconomic Attractiveness
Priority Industries
Other industries
Oil Refining
Food Processing
Petrochemicals
Clothing
Textiles
Iron, steel & fabricated metals
Automotive
Non metallicMinerals (building materials)
Marine services
Fertilizers
Cement based products
Industrial development potential – Priority industries
Steel makingCementBuilding materialsMarine servicesShipyardAutomotiveFood processingTextiles & clothingOil refiningPetrochemicalsFertilizerLNG
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Major industry sectors that show a high potential for development in Gwadar are:- Petrochemicals – oil refining, petrochemicals, chemicals, LNG, gas-based industries- Heavy industries – large-scale manufacturing: steel, cement, fertiliser etc., energy-
intensive industries- Manufacturing – textiles and garments, automotive, consumer goods, food-processing,
assembly; export-oriented The following key projects show good commercial potential. Efforts should be directed towards attracting these industries quickly, as these can act as major triggers for further industrial development:- First oil refinery- LNG terminal (initially for imports)- First cement plant- First fertiliser plant (urea, ammonia, based on gas or coal)- First dockyard or shipyard- Steel mill - First car assembly plant
Gwadar industrial development potential
Industrial development potential – Main conclusions
The early establishment of pre-selected feasible industrial trigger projects will be critical to ensure a rapid development of Gwadar
Summary
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For the bottom up approaches, a range of values was obtained by determining the port traffic under the five different industrial development scenarios.
Short term forecastsBottom Up: Model port traffic from all major cargo contributors covering national ExIm, Gwadar industrial development, city growth, transhipment and transit trade
Long term forecasts. 50 yearsBottom up: Model based on long term growth rates and built up from results of the short term bottom up forecast
Industrial development scenarios
A
B
Industrial development scenarios
Industrial powerhouse
Heavy industries dominated
Petrochemicals dominated
Manufacturing dominated
Base case
I
II
III
IV
V
Range of values
obtained
Port & cargo traffic forecasts – Approach
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0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
2nd PortGwadar
In 2055, Gwadar is forecasted to capture about one third of the national port traffic market, translating into a throughput volume of about 350 mln tons
Port traffic (mln tons)
National traffic demand forecast
Source: Pakistan Board of Statistics, Karachi Port, Port Qasim, Arthur D. Little analysis
1st Port
Best case: 1125
Worst case: 950
4th Port
Gwadar in 2055 – National traffic forecast
Preliminary
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The model uses an overall port traffic growth rate of 7.5% at 2021, which decreases to 4.5% by 2055; this is slightly higher than national port growth. rates
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
Long term growth forecasts
General cargo
Annual Growth (%)
Source: Arthur D. Little analysis
Liquid bulk grows at 3% at Year 16 and decreases to 2.5% by 2055
General cargo grows at 5% at Year 16 and decreases to 4.8% by 2055
Dry bulk grows at 11% at Year 16 and decreases to 5% by 2055
Containers grow at 11% at Year 16 and decreases to 5.5% by 2055
Overall growth is 7.5% at Year 16 and decreases to 4.5% by 2055
2A
Overall
Liquid bulk
Dry bulk Containers
Port & cargo traffic forecasts – Short term forecasts
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Dry Bulk General Cargo Liquid Build Containers
Cargo Traffic (mio tons)
Gwadar’s port traffic is forecast to be between 42 – 65 mio tons in 15 years and 321 - 345 mio tons in 50 years.
Port & cargo traffic forecasts
65 mio42 mio
345 mio321 mio
The short term forecast for Gwadar Port traffic is 42 – 65 mio tons, with containers and liquid bulk as the main contributorsUsing an aggregate of two approaches, the long term forecast for Gwadar Port is 321 –345 mio tonsForecasts indicate approximately 4,800 ship calls by 2020 and approximately 24,000 ship calls by 2055The construction program uses the outputs of the 15 year forecast for developing design capacity (90 mio tons in 2020)The zoning plan uses the outputs of the 50 year forecast for developing design capacity (approx. 500 mln tons in 2055)
Port traffic forecast
Source: Arthur D. Little analysis
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
15 yrs: 2020
50 yrs: 2055
Chapter Summary
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Gwadar industry development
Transit trade
Transhipment
National ExIm
Cargo Traffic (mio tons)
In the short term, local industry development is expected to provide the largest port traffic contribution.
Short term forecast: by contributors
Gwadar city growth
Source: Pakistan Board of Investments, Statistics, Intracen, Karachi Port/ Port Qasim, Arthur D. Little analysis
Year
65 mio
42 mio
Preliminary
Port & cargo traffic forecasts
15
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Liquid bulk
General cargo
Dry bulk
Cargo Traffic (mio tons)
Short term forecast: by cargo type
Containers
Source: Pakistan Board of Investments, Statistics, Intracen, Karachi Port/ Port Qasim, Arthur D. Little analysis
Liquid bulk and containers will be the main contributors by 2020, reflecting the importance and potential of petrochemical activities.
Year
65 mio
42 mio
Preliminary
Port & cargo traffic forecasts
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The Gwadar port zoning plan was formulated to optimally allocate land areas for the various cargo handling activities & related industrial development based on a 50 yrs time frame
The zoning plan caters up to 50 km of quay side and up to 10,000 ha of industrial land by 2055
There will be dedicated terminals for all cargo types; general, dry (clean & dirty), liquid, SPMs, LNG, containers, ro-ro, navy, etc.
Certain terminals will be for multi-purpose usage
Port-adjacent industrial land is for cargo back-up and storage, shipyard activities, LNG, oil refineries, steel mills, fertilizer plants, etc. to the extent that these need to be situated next to port facilities
CommentsGwadar port zoning plan (50 years)
Port land requirements & zoning plan (50 years) – Final zoning plan
Existing facilities (Phase I)
Immediate extension (Phase II)
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The zoning plan was developed based on the analysis of the port-land requirements under all possible industrial development scenarios of Gwadar
Multi-use area 1 (119 ha)– Designated to support phase
1 & 2 operations of multipurpose terminal
Multi-use area 2 (1159 ha)– Reserved for back-end
operations of future dedicated container & general cargo terminals
Industrial area 1 (2620 ha)– Port related industrial land
for clean dry bulk, chemicals, oils and fats and related industries
– Potential location for EPZ
Industrial area 2 (5000 ha)– Port related industrial land for
heavy industries
CommentsGwadar port zoning plan (50 years)
Port land requirements & zoning plan (50 years) – Final zoning plan
1
2
3
4
Multi-use area 2
Industrial area 1
Industrial area 2
3
4
2
Multi-use area 11
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The new terminals planned for the first 15 years will be able to cater for the forecasted traffic for that time period
First stage development plan (2005-2020) – Overview
15 year Physical development Program – Program Overview
Early developments
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The terminals planned for the first 15 years will be able to cater for the forecasted traffic for that time period
First Stage Development Plan (2005-2020) – Main facilities
Multipurpose terminal expansion to the east
Navy base at end of hammerheadConversion of the existing fishing wharf to provide bunkering and other ship servicesContainer terminal (northwest in East Bay)Free zone development adjacent to container terminalLiquid bulk terminal (for edible oils, chemicals etc) (northern end of East Bay)Clean dry bulk terminal (northern end of East Bay)LNG terminal (east of East Bay)Petroleum/ Petrochemical Terminal (east of East Bay)Dirty bulk terminal (east of East Bay)Four additional access channelsBreakwaters where needed
15 year Physical development Program – Program Overview
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In line with the Government’s policy, Gwadar’s port development shall follow the landlord model
As a regulatory authority, the key functions of GPA are:Port development planning and implementation Ensuring funding for development and maintenance of port infrastructureSelection and contracting of operatorsPerformance management and control (of all relevant port actors)Management and control of tariffs and ratesPort safety and security control (actual operations can be outsourced)Vessel traffic control, navigational safety, anchorage management Port infrastructure maintenance (breakwaters and channels)General promotion of Gwadar Port and corporate communications
To ensure balanced development, as the regulatory authority, GPA should maintain an arm-length relationship with the various port actors, operators and sub-contractors
Key functions of GPA under landlord model
Overall structure of relationships with operators – Landlord model
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There will be many private sector investment opportunities in Gwadar in the near and immediate term
Oil refineries
Petrochemicals, incl gas-based
Fertilizer
Coal-based industries
Steel making and related
Cement production
Car assembly
Dockyard / shipyard
Other heavy industries
Industrial estate facilities (various types)
Other commercial developments
Large-scale industrial opportunities
Multipurpose terminal and related
Container terminal and related facilities
Clean dry bulk terminal
Dirty bulk terminals (coals, minerals)
Crude oil terminals / SPM’s
Other liquid bulk terminals (petrochemicals, chemicals, edible oils)
LNG terminals
Free zone facilities
Storage / warehousing (bulk)
Terminals and other port facilities
Private sector participation
Most of these port projects are expected to be BOT projects
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The SEZ concept will not replace the EPZ and FZ concepts, but instead reinforce their development. Objectives differ by concept
Coexistence of SEZ, EPZ and FZ
Incentives provided in terms of taxes and duties exemptions will survive the end of life of the SEZ
Incentives more elaborateOperates as a bonded environment
enabling certain goods to be manufactured for exports without being subjected to standard tax and duties
Smaller than the EPZ, but located within the port fenced area
Tax and duties exemptions are permanent
Provides investment opportunities to establish value add, re-assembly, packaging and re-packaging and time sensitive activities within the port area
Covers the whole Gwadar city , port and industrial areas
Incentives benefit both individuals and companies, locals and foreigners
SEZ status and incentives will expire after 20 years (recommended time frame)
EPZ FZ
SEZ
Port & industrial development strategies – SEZ 8