A MERTON-MODEL APPROACH TO ASSESSING THE DEFAULT RISK OF MALAYSIA PUBLIC COMPANIES

TeoT!iW~ng ": ··Pt..;' • • "'" ~~; .

.. . ... .

I , •.. HG

"

3761 Corporate Master in Business Administration T314 2013 2013

I ---

Pusat Khidmat Makll!mat Ak:idemik(J

U~IVERSITI MALAYSIA SARAWAK

P.KHIDMAT MAKLUMAT AKADEMIK

11111 IIIIIfiiffllllill III

-

1000246877

A Merton-Model Approach to Assessing the Default Risk of Malaysia Public Companies

,

\ By

Teo TaiWang (11031898)

A Research Paper Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of

the Requirement for the Degree of

Corporate Master in Business Administration

. ' ''­

Faculty of Economics and Business UNIVERSITY MALAYSIA SARA W AK

(2013) 'j

II I ,- .~ . .,', '1:-. I t , '"' .

ii '

. .

, APPROVAL PAGE

I celtified that I have supervised and read this study and in my opinion it conforms to

acceptable standards scholarly presentation and its fmlly adequate in scope and quality as

research paper for the degree of Corporate Master in Business Administration.

Associate Professor Dr. Mohamad Jais

Supervisor

This research paper was submitted to the Faculty of Economics and Business. UNIMAS

and is accepted as partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of Corporate

Master in Business Administration. \ ..

. . , , 0; .

• J

Dr. Mohamad Affendy Arif

Dean, Faculty of Economic and Business

UNIMAS 11 I "., .1'; 'i,'I~ •

' iii

, STATEMENT OF ORIGINALITY

The work described in this Research Paper, entitled

"A MERTON-MODEL APPROACH TO ASSESSING THE DEFAULT RISK OF

MALA YSIA PUBLIC COMPANIES"

is to the best of the author's knowledge that of the author except

where due reference is made.

, .. t--:... ..._., _.~ . \.I ..~•.. _______

Date 1oo'TAI WANG • t

28.06.2013 (11031898) . ....

. ' ~-

'I .. '.. 'i '. t . '1 I " -, . .'.

'iv'

Acknowledgement

,

Throughout my entire Corporate Master in Business Administrative (CMBA) program, I have

been blessed with encouragement and assistance from many, without whose help, I am unable to

complete the program. I would like to express my sincere thanks and appreciation to them.

I would like to express my deepest gratitude and respect for my supervisor, Prof Madya Dr.

Mohamad Jais, who has been most patient and supportive with his time and professional guidance.

With his vast experience in both the field and research, he has my understanding and interest in

research. It meant a lot to me as I had no prior research background. I am indeed honoured to be

under his mentorship.

Also, I would like to extend my special thanks and appreciation to all my lecturers in Unimas

who have unselfishly shared and imparted invaluable knowledge, understanding and a broader

outlook: Prof. Dr. Shazali Abu Mansor, Prof. Dr. Ernest Cyril De Run, Associate Prof. Dr. Puah

Chin Hong, Prof Madya Dr. Venus Liew Khim Sen, Dr. Harry Entebang, Dr. Mahani Mohamad

Abdu Shakur, Dr. Dayang Affizah Awang Merikan and Dr. Rohaya Mohd Nor.

, .. Lastly, I would like to express my -;ppreciation'lor the 'u'n-d'erstanding and supportive of my wife

Penny Chua and my children Veronica TeQ and Jonathan Teo. They are my fountain of joy. I

dedicate this study to all the lovely and respective people mentioned above. 'I ... I , i '" • [, " " " ., I , .

J~ •

'v

--

Pusat Khidmat Maklumat Akadcmik UNIVERSITl MALAYSiA SARAWAK

TABLE OF CONTENTS

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT v ,

TABLE O} CONTENTS VI

CHAPTER I: INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background \ 1.2 Purpose of study 2 1.3 Problem Statement 2 1.4 Research Objective 3 1.5 Research Question 3 1.6 Definition of Key Terms 4 1.7 Significance of Study 7 1.8 Scope of Study 7 1.9 Organization of Chapter 8

CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1 Introduction 10 2.2 Merton Model 12 2.3 Modeling Default Risk 17

2.3.1 Estimate asset value and volatility 21 2.3.2 Calculate the Distance-to-default 24 2.3.3 Calculate the Default Probability 24

2.4 Other studies 27 2.4.1 Of Moody's and Merton 27 2.4.2 Default Forecasting in KMV 27 2.4.3 A Merton-model approach to assessing the default risk of UK public companies 28

2.4.4 Forecasting Bankruptey More A~.~w:~tYlY..... ".~.. 29 2.5 The Malaysia scenario . '. .~, ~ i{'~ ' 30

.... . , , "'.

, ,

j I'" ... , I~ ,

CHAPTER 3: METHODOLOGY

313.1 Intq:>duction 343.2 Re~arch Design 363.3 Implementation of Research Design 373.4 Sample and data description

3.3.1 Criteria of PN 17 Companies 38

393.3.2 Obligations ofPNI7 Company 403.3 .2.1 Regularization plan

3.3.2.2 Disclosure obligations ofPNI7 Company 40

' 423.3.2.3 Obligation to Regularize 453.3.3 List ofPN17 Companies

CHAPTER 4: FINDINGS

534.1 Introduction 544.2 Analysis of Results 564.3 Conclusion

CHAPTER 5: DISCUSSION

575.1 Introduction 575.2 The Backdrop 585.3 Discussion of Hypothesis Testing 595.4 Implications

5.5 Strengths and Limitations 595.5.1 Strengths 605.5 .2 Limitation 615.6 Directions for future Research 625.7 Conclusion

I • ~

-:''- . ~- ;; . . • ~. ~r-'~ • •

63REFERENCE . '65APPENDIX I ... .'".. ­Sample of distance-to-default calculation ... _

I~ ., I • .(J, ft '+ I " ,' ,

CHAPTER 1

INTRODUCTION , ,

1.1 Background

~n finance, investment is putting money into som thing with the expectation to gain

either by appreciation in value or a constant cash flow stream generated from that

asset, usually over a longer period. Investments come in verities of form, ranking

from holding tangible asset like properties to intangible asset like financial instrument

such as security or debts. All form of investments involves some fonn of risk such as

investment in equities, property, and even fixed interest securities which are subject to

inflation riV

Equity stock or share in a public listed company is one form of the investment

instrument with long term prospect. This is because equity share offer two type of

return to the investor. One is the capital gain from price appreciation of the share due

to company's profit from its operation, secondly, profitable company will distribute

dividends to its shareholders on a annual or bio-annual basic base on the performance

of the company. Sometime company even distribute bonus share to its shareholder.

Also invested in public listed company's share could provide liquidity to its holder as

it can easily dispose off. Therefore. shar~ investment is a attracting investment :" . ~.:," :" - .~, ~.' .~: ' "- 1

• I, ~l . ...

instrument. Bursa Malaysia the stock exchange in Malaysia as at 31 March 20 I I, has a

market capitalisation of MYR1.287 triHion (I) (equivaient to USD429 billion) with

959 companies list on the Main board (2).

(I) source: from Wikipedia. the free encyclopedia '. (2) source: Bursa Malaysia website (hllp:l!www.(JllrliCunalaYliiOl'oom!I/(;sc!/)"sling 'contact Iist.pdf) . ,' , . , -­

I, .

I

1.2 Purpose of study

The purp3se of this study is to examine the effecti veness of using Merton-model style , of approach to measure the probability of failure of individual public company listed

in Bursa Malaysia in order to mitigate the default risk exposure by investors when

they invested in the Malaysia stock market. Althou h business failure could due to

various risk like market risk, liquidity risk, operational risk etc. For this study, the

main focus is on the credit risk of the individual company. The credit risk. of the firm

is often referred as the default of the firm (Default Forecasting in KMV by Yuqian

(Steven) Lu J9 June, 2008) and in the following of this paper both term wi 11 be used

interchanged. This study will only discuss on the use of Merton-model as an

assessment tool in the measurement of the credit risk of the firm. Then the study will

assess the reliabilities of the results provided by the method.

1.3 Problem Statement

Is Merton-model able to estimate the failure of the public companies listed in Bursa

Malaysia reliably? If Merton-model is proved to be an effective measurement tools,

then current and potential investors could consider the application of the tools as a

guideline to reduce their credit risk·exp;su~e i'iid"ii'iihirmse·th~ttf..p.oteq~~.1. .tlnancial

losses. ..(',­

. '

" I " .". , . 'i lt. t l , .J.., •

I ,

2

• J '

1.4 Research Objective

,

" The objective of this research is to assess the reliability of Merton-model in

estimating the failure of the public companies listed in Bursa Malaysia by examine

their success in predicting the failure or survival of ~e failed companies. In order to

achieve this main objective, the following sub objectives have to be fulfilled:­

1. To understand the mechanism of Merton-model is assessing the default

risk exposure of the firms; and

ii. Use the Merton-model to examine the failure or survival of the failure

companies which are sample pick from companies grouped under PN 17 in

Bursa Malaysia.

1.5 Research Question

I. What is Merton-model as a method available to assess the default rate of

public companies trade in the Malaysia stock exchange?

ii. What is the relationship between the default rate determined from the above

method and the actual default of the corporate bond? , .­

. .. ; ,. - ~ ....

.. ­

J-r •

" /

,, '; i.'. f. f j { " ..

3

. t

I

1.6 Deflnition of Key Terms

'"

Credit Rating

A credit rating evaluates the credit worthiness f a debtor, especial'ly a business

(company, corporation) or a goverrunent. It is an evaluation made by a credit rating

agency of the debtor's ability to pay back the debts and the likelihood of default. The

credit rating represents the credit rating agency's evaluation of qualitative and

quantitative information for a company or government.

Credit Rating Agency (eRA)

A Credit rating Agency is a company that assign credit ratings for issuers of certain

types of debts obligation as well as debts instruments. The largest credit rating

agencies (which operate worldwide) are Dun & Bradstreet, Moody's, Standard &

Poor and Fitch Rating.

Rating Agency Malaysia (RAM)

Rating Agency Malaysia is the Malaysia credit rating agency.

\ .. '..

Bursa Malaysia (KLSE)

Bursa Malaysia previously known as Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange (KLSE,.~ ... ' .. ... ..... Bursa Saham Kuala Lumpur in Malay) is the sole stock exchange in Malaysia

which provides services for stock brokers and traders to trade stocks, bonds, and other

, . ­securities.

I I" c ..,

'I

J~ ,

4

Pusat Khidmat Maklumat Akademik UNIVERSITl MALAYSIA SARAWAJ(

Credit Risk

Credit risk refers to the risk that a borrower will default on any type of debt by

failing td'make payments which it is obligated to do. The risk is primarily that of the ~

lender and include lost on both principle and interest, disruption to cash flows, and

additional collection costs.

Bond

In finance, a bond is an instrument of indebtedness of the bond issuer to the holders. It

is a debt security, under which the issuer owes the holders a debt and, depending on

the terms of the bond, is obliged to pay them interest (the coupon) and/or to repay the

principal at a later date, termed the maturity. Interest is usually payable at fixed

intervals (semi-annual, annual and sometimes monthly). Very often the bond is

negotiable, i.e. the ownership of the instrument can be transferred in the secondary

market.

Black-Scholes

The Black-Scholes model is a mathematical model of a financial market containing

certain derivative investment instruments. From the model, one can deduce the

Black-Scholes formula, which gives a theoretical estimate of the price of European-

style options. The formul!a, developed by three economists - Fischer Black, Myron

Scholes and Robert Merton - is pertmps the wOl'ld'H1JOlOt...wsl~_~~n o.~~~~~l~ , pricing

model. (From Wikipedia and lnveslopedia)

.... . """

, .­

1/ i" ,'. , , ' .

5

Default rate

Default rate is the rate of borrowers who fail to remain current on their loans. It is a

critical iJiece of information used by lenders to determine their risk exposure and ~

economists to evaluate the health of the overaU economy.

Geometric Brownian motion

A geometric Brownian motion (GBM) (also known as exponential Brownian

motion) is a continuous-time stochastic process in which the 'logarithm of the

randomly varying quantity follows a Brownian motion (also called a Wiener process)

with drift. It is an important example of stochastic processes satisfying a stochastic

differential equation (SDE); in particular, it is used in mathematical finance to model

stock prices in the Black-Scholes model. (From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia)

Ito's lemma

In mathematics, Ito's lemma is an identity used in Ito calculus to find the differential

of a time-dependent function of a stochastic process; it serves as the stochastic

calculus counterpart of the chain rule. (From Wikipedia, thejree encyclopedia)

Wiener process

In mathematics, the Wiener process is a continuous-time stochastic process named in

honor of Norbert Wiener. It is often" called staliJaM;Brtrwt\iHo4llllO~iO\l~ ~~~~r Robert

Brown. It is one of the best known Levy processes (cad lag stochastic processes with

stationary independent increments) and ~c'curs frequently in pure and applied

mathematics, economics, quantitative finance and physics.

;. ,, '

~I I I' " ', ".. ''-1 •

6

II

,....

1.7 Significance of Study

Equitt shares offer a higher yield and more liquidity as compared to some other ~

investments, but for a price. Today's business environment has become more

sophisticate, volatile and compl.icated coupled wi.th dynamic change in the business

environment has increased the risk face by the \ usiness. The increase in failure of

large conglomerate like Enron (2001), Worldcom (2002) and lately Lehman Brothers

which is the largest bankruptcy in US history has indicated the uncertainty faced by

investor when they invested in equity share. Therefore, it is important that investors of

equity shares are able to assess credit risk and its potential payoffs : while rising

interest rate movements can reduce the value of your investment, a default can almost

eliminate it. Holders of equity share are exposing to risk of default. Therefore it is

important for equity investors to be able to detect the risk early so as to minimise the

financial loss in case of defaults.

I.S Scope of Study

The research will be conducted at the Malaysia Stock Exchange namely Bursa

Malaysia (KLSE). The scope of the study will be the companies listed in the KLSE.

Secondary data will be collected and analys~S"~.:rhfg-r~.. Th~~ W~.ip. t s~urce of

the secondary data would be published data obtained from KLSE.

, . \10 "

, . ­' . .. " 'il ~ [ , I I ( '"

,~ . .',

7

,... ,..

1.9 Organization of Chapter

Chap~r one sets the research background relating to issues and facts that are pertinent ,. to this study. It also encompass the purpose of study, problem statement, research

objectives, research questions, definition of key tenns, the significance of study, the

scope of study and organization of chapters.

Chapter two will examine, compare and discuss the literature review of credit risk

assessment model and past research done on the application of this model. The

chapter will also include the theoretical framework of study and the gaps between the

literature review, justification of the theoretical framework and description of the

dependent and independent variable.

Chapter three represents the methodology in this research. It will incorporate the

research design, sample and procedure, data collection procedure, measure and

statistical analyses, such as reliability analysis, factor analysis, descriptive statistics,

correlation coefficient and liner regression, that will be used in this study.

Chapter four will discuss the results and findings from this research. It will explain

the goodness of measures, restatement of research hypotheses, inter-correlations

among study variables, hypothe;is te~ting ' and-'fri1diifgs' -of~ot~~~ . rt;sting. The

results will be seen clearly from the interpretation in the findings. Thus, the . . .... ... .... hypotheses and the relationship between the various variable can be summarized.

, . ' j I' ·.,

8, '

Chapter five will include the discussion of hypotheses testing, the relationship

between the different variables and the conclusions drawn from the findings of this

resealch. ~

The last chapter will embody the conclusion of the overall research, recommendations

made for the various stakeholders, recommendatk,ns for future research as well as the

limitations of this study.

, .­

• t

. - , '" " ... .

.. ­

I ,

, , .1'; :( 1-. ,~ ,

9 , '

CHAPTER 2

LITERATURE REVIEW

,.

2.1 Introduction

The Merton model is a model proposed by Robe C. Merton in 1974 by extended the

work of Black Scholes on option pricing theory for assessing the credit risk of a

company. In late 1980s, the Merton model was developed by the firm call KMV

Corporation; a firm specialized in credit risk analysis. Therefore it was also call as

KMV-Merton model. Subsequently, Moody's Corporation acquired KMV in 2002

and due to Moody's commercial characteristic as a stocks and bonds rating agencies.

The modeling choices made by Moody's KMV become a commercial secret.

Merton model links the firm ' s credit ri,k to its capital structure. The model is perhaps

the most significant contribution to the area of qualitative credir risk research by

fuqian (Steven) Lu in Default Forecasting in KMV 19 June 2008. Although it is a

widely used application and is the foundation in modeling credit risk, its relies on

some simplifying assumption about the structure of the typical finn's finances to

facili tate its implementation which in practice, these simplifying assumption are not

realistic. The Merton model makes three particularly important assumptions. The first

assumption is that the total value ~f a rim; is!iisrutn'eCn{)··f~.geo.~ettif.,Brownian. . . . • t

motion. Second, it is assumed that the firm has a simple capital structure: debts' plus

.­equity and the finn only issued a single, homogeneous class of debts and thirdly is

that the event of default can only take place at the maturity of the debt when the

repayment is due. {, I I ' '" ..

10 ,

According to Merton-model, the company's equity is by characterizing as a call option

on the ubderlying value of its assets. Put-call parity is then used to price the value of a , put and this is treated as an analogous representation of the firm's credit risk. The

basic ideal of the Merton model is that it assumed that the firm will issue a bond to its

bondbolder and promise to pay them a B amount w en the bond is mature at T time. If

at time Tthe firm's assets value is above the bond repayment value B, then the firm is

able to realise its assets and settle its debt (the bond) and the shareholder get the

residual of the value. Whereas on the other hand, if the firm's assets value fall below

the debt value, the bondholders will take over the company and the equity holders of

the firm will not have anything. This means a bond issuer or an obligor is say to be

defaults when the value of the bond issuer's assets fall below or equivalent to the

value of its liabilities, or when the ratio of its liabilities to assets fall below one.

Steven Lu Yuqian in his paper Default Forecasting in KMV stated that 'This model

assume afirm 's equity could be view as a perpetual barrier option on the underlying

value of the firm's asset in a time horizon. Once the assets value of the firm drops

below some threshold level, which is also called the default point (DD), at or below

the time horizon, the firm would immediately defalllt."

, ..

. t

. .. .. .. . - _.

t. / 1 I "

''J •

11

2.2 The Merton Model

The Merton model forecasting firm default by determines a probability ofdefault for

the firm at a given point in time. In order to calculate the probability of default of the

firm, the model will first estimate the market value of the firm. Then its will subtracts

the face value of the firm's debt from the estimak market value. Secondly, the model

will take this different and divided it with an estimate volatility of the firm's assets to

produce a z-score called distance to default. And lastly it will substitute the distance

to default into a cumulative density function to determine the probability that the

value of the firm will fall below the face value of its debt at the forecasting horizon.

Referring to Sreedhar T Bharath and Tyler Shllmway's research paper Forecasting

Default with the KMV-Merton Model (2004) in the KMV-Merton model there are two

particular important assumptions. Th: first one is that the total value of a firm is

asswned to follow geometric Brownian motion which can be express in the following

fonnula.

dV = /-lVdt + uvVdW (1)

Where

Vis the total value of the firm;

/-l is the expected continuously compounded return of V; ~

CTV is the volatility of firm value; and . ,

, _ J tI.....dW is a standard Weiner process; . ...

. .­"

/1 ( " , , ~ .

12, '

The second assumption of the model is that the firm has issued just one discount bond

maturing in T periods. Under these assumptions, the equity of the firm is a call option

, on the underlying value of the firm with a strike price equal to the face value of the ... firm 's debt and a time-to-maturity of T. Moreover, the value of equity as a function of

the total value of the firm can be described by the Black-Scholes-Merton Formula. By

put-call parity, the value of the firm's debt is equal to the val ue of a risk-free discount

bond minus the value of a put option written on the firm, again with a strike price

equal to the face value of debt and a time-to-maturity of T.

The KMV-Merton model uses two nonlinear equations to translate the value and

volatility of a firm's equity into an implied probability of default. The first equation is

the value of a firm ' s equity as a function of the value of the firm which Merton model

stipulates as:­

(2)

Where

E is the market value of the firm's equity;

F is the face value of the firm debts;

r is the instantaneous risk-free rate;

-N is the cumulative standard normal di.Stribution function;

... I ~ tr . . ' ~. !i '':' ... --. .. ..... ~

, ,

.... .. .. ..... '

. . ­

{, '/ I .. ... , .~ ,

13

d, is given by

In (VIF) + ( r + O.50"~ )T ,

(3)

The second equation relates the volatility of the finn's value to the volatility of its

equity. Under Merton's assumptions the value of the equity is a function of the value

of the firm and time, so it follows directly from Ito's lemma that

v aE (JE =( E) all O'v (4)

In the Black-Scholes-Merton model, it can be shown that av = JIf{d,), so that

under the Merton model's assumption, the volatilities of the firm and its equity are

related by

V (JE =( E) JIf(d,)O'v (5)

, . where d, is defined in equation (~

. . .. ".

., ,, ', ..f,'•...., ,

14, '

The KMV-Merton model basically uses equation (2) and (5) to translate the value and

volatil ity of the finn ' s equity into an implied probability of default. In most

appli~ation the Black-Scholes-Merton model describes the unobserved value of an ~

option as a function of four variable that are easily observed (which are strike price,

time-to-maturity, underlying asset price, and the risk free rate) and one variable that

can be estimated, the volatility. Whereas, in KM V-Merton model, the value of the

option is observed as the total value of the firm's equity, while the value of the

underlying asset (which is the value oftbe firm) is not directly observable. Thus while

V must be inferred, E is easy to observe in the marketplace by multiplying the firm ' s

shares outstanding by its current stock price. Similarly, in the KMV-Merton model,

the volatil ity of equity (JE, can be estimated but the volatility of the underlying firm

(Jr must be inferred.

Sreedhar and Tyler state the following steps in implementing the Merton model:­

I. First step is to estimate the volatility of equity (JE either from the historical

stock return data or from option implied volatility data.

2. The second step is to choose a forecasting horizon and a measyre of the face

value of the firm's debt. The forecasting horizon is the time we wanted to

forecast. For example we can assume a forecasting horizon of one year (T = I).

As for measure of debt's 'face value,'!·w.~..can.~ .t~tal book value of the .. • • . .;" ~ . -: ' t ' • 1 •

finn's liabilities to be the face value of the firm's debt.

_. '" . .. . '

3. The third step is to collect value of the risk-free rate and the market equity of

the fi rm. oJ

'I ( II f ' / 1 I "

15, .

After performing the above three steps, we would have determine the variables in

equation (2) and (5) above except for V (the total value of the firm) and crv (the

, vol~lity of firm value).

4. The forth step, perhaps is the most significant step in implementing the model

is to simultaneously solve equation (2) and (5) numerically for value Vand crv.

Once this numerical solution is obtained, the distance to default (DD) can be

calculated as:

In (V/F) + (u + O.50"~ )TDD

(6)

where Ii is an estimate of the expectei! annua'i return of the firm's assets.

The corresponding implied probability of default which sometime called the expected

defaultfreqllency (or EDF), is

In (V/F) + (u + O.5Ci,~ )T lTKMV = JI/(-{ )) = JI/( - DD)

crV\iT •

. (7) . . .... ... ..

.'­

If the Merton model holds completely, the implied probability of default defined

above, lI'KMV, should be a sufficient statistic for defau'lt forecasts.

.,

'I . I , f "

.~ ,

16 '

2.3 Modeling Default Risk

, ...

Ifwe would refer to the report Modeling Default Risk published by KMV LLC (2002),

there are three main elements that determine the default probability of a firm:

I. Value of Assets: This is the market value of the firm's assets. We should not

confuse between the market value with book value which is the historical

value of firm's assets. Market value is the measure of future cash flows

generated by the firm's assets discounted back to the present value using an

appropriate discount rate which normally is the firm's cost of capital. With

this measure, it has incorporate the future prospects of the firm and the

relevant information about its industry and the economy.

2. Asset Risk: the uncertainty or risk of the asset value. The asset risk of a firm

is a measure of the firm's business and industry risk. This is because the value

of the firm's assets fluctuates due to the business and industry risk of a firm.

Therefore, the value of the firm's assets should always be understood in the

context of the firm's business or asset risk.

, .. 3. Leverage: is the extent of the' firrriO:S' ·eoofrattu~kf.ifttti.tie~. ~}y.Q.~reas the

relevant measure of the firm's is at their market value. the book value of

,.- Ii ' .. "

liabilities relative to the market value of assets is the appropriate measure of

the fi rm's leverage, as this is the amount that the firm must repay.

'. f ' /1 ( .., , ,.'; ( I ..

'I ' •

17