BAB 9 Peramalan.ppt [Read-Only] - ocw.usu.ac.idocw.usu.ac.id/.../tdi_437_sap_peramalan.pdf ·...

PERAMALANPERAMALANPERAMALANPERAMALAN

Oleh :

Aulia Ishak, ST, MT

Aulia Ishak, ST, MT11

Kerangka PeramalanKerangka PeramalanKerangka PeramalanKerangka Peramalan

Perbedaan diantara peramalan danPerbedaan diantara peramalan danPerbedaan diantara peramalan dan Perbedaan diantara peramalan dan PerencanaanPerencanaanAplikasi Peramalan dalam keputusan daerah Aplikasi Peramalan dalam keputusan daerah p pp pyang beragam operasi (perencanaan kapasitas, yang beragam operasi (perencanaan kapasitas, manajemen persediaan, dll)manajemen persediaan, dll)Penggunaan dan Metode PeramalanPenggunaan dan Metode Peramalan


Penggunaan Peramalan untuk Penggunaan Peramalan untuk Keputusan OperasiKeputusan OperasiKeputusan OperasiKeputusan Operasi

TimeHorizon

AccuracyRequired

Number ofForecasts

ManagementLevel

ForecastingMethodq

Processdesign Long Medium Single or few Top Qualitative

or causal

Capacity Q lit tiCapacityplanning,facilities

Long Medium Single or few Top Qualitativeand causal

Aggregatel i Medium High Few Middle Causal and

planning Medium High Few Middle time series

Scheduling Short Highest Many Lower Time series

Inventorymanagement Short Highest Many Lower Time series


Use of Forecasting (Table 11.1)Use of Forecasting (Table 11.1)Marketing Finance HRMMarketing Finance HRMMarketing, Finance, HRMMarketing, Finance, HRM

Time Accuracy Number of Management ForecastingHorizon

yRequired Forecasts

gLevel

gMethod

Long-rangemarketingprograms

Long Medium Single or few Top QualitativeprogramsPricingdecisions Short High Many Middle Time series

New product Q alitati eNew productintroduction Medium Medium Single Top Qualitative

and causal

Costestimating Short High Many Lower Time seriesestimating g y

Capitalbudgeting Medium Highest Few Top Causal and

time series


Metode Peramalan KualitatifMetode Peramalan KualitatifMetode Peramalan KualitatifMetode Peramalan Kualitatif

Metode Utama:Metode Utama:Metode Utama:Metode Utama:–– Teknik Delphi Teknik Delphi

Survey pasarSurvey pasar–– Survey pasarSurvey pasar–– Analogi siklus hidupAnalogi siklus hidup

Informed J dgementInformed J dgement–– Informed JudgementInformed Judgement


Peramalan TimePeramalan Time--SeriesSeriesPeramalan TimePeramalan Time Series Series

Komponen umum dalam timeKomponen umum dalam time--series :series :Komponen umum dalam timeKomponen umum dalam time series :series :–– RataRata--ratarata–– SeasonalSeasonal–– SiklikSiklik–– TrendTrend–– Error (komponen random )Error (komponen random )

“Dekomposisi” time“Dekomposisi” time--seriesseries


Moving AverageMoving Average

Simple Moving Average:Simple Moving Average:

Moving AverageMoving Average

Simple Moving Average:Simple Moving Average:

DDD +++N

DDDA Ntttt

11 ...... +−− +++=

AF 1

Weighted Moving Average:Weighted Moving Average:tt AF =+ 1

11211 ...... +−−+ +++== NtNtttt DWDWDWAF


Exponential SmoothingExponential Smoothing

Simple Exponential Smoothing:Simple Exponential Smoothing:

Exponential SmoothingExponential Smoothing

Simple Exponential Smoothing:Simple Exponential Smoothing:

1 ( )t t t tF F D Fα+ = + −

Smoothing Coefficient (alpha) determinasiSmoothing Coefficient (alpha) determinasi

1 ( )t t t t+

Smoothing Coefficient (alpha) determinasiSmoothing Coefficient (alpha) determinasiDeterminasi meramalkan inisial Determinasi meramalkan inisial


TimeTime--Series Data PlotSeries Data PlotTimeTime Series Data Plot Series Data Plot


Exponential SmoothingExponential SmoothingExponential SmoothingExponential Smoothing

Logis Dasar:Logis Dasar:Logis Dasar:Logis Dasar:

PeramalanPeramalan

( ) 11 −−+= ttt ADA αα

PeramalanPeramalan

AF tt AF =+1

( )tttt FDFF −+=+ α1 ( )tttt+1


Kesalahan PeramalanKesalahan PeramalanKesalahan PeramalanKesalahan Peramalan

Cumulative Sum of Forecast Error (CFE)Cumulative Sum of Forecast Error (CFE)Cumulative Sum of Forecast Error (CFE)Cumulative Sum of Forecast Error (CFE)Mean Square Error (MSE)Mean Square Error (MSE)Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE)Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE)Tracking Signal (TS)Tracking Signal (TS)Tracking Signal (TS)Tracking Signal (TS)


Kesalahan Peramalan: FormulaKesalahan Peramalan: Formula

t

n

=1i

e = CFE ∑Cumulative sum ofForecast Errors

n

|De|

= MAPE t

tn

=1i

100∑Mean AbsolutePercentage Error

t

n

=1i

e=MSE

2∑Mean Square Error e=TS

t

n

=1i∑Tracking Signal

nMSE

||n

∑Mean Absolute

MAD=TS 1i

n

e∑n

|e| = MAD

t=1i∑Mean Absolute

Deviationn

t=1i

e = ME∑Mean Error


Peramalan TimePeramalan Time--Series Series BerkelanjutanBerkelanjutan

Adaptif exponential smoothingAdaptif exponential smoothingAdaptif exponential smoothingAdaptif exponential smoothingPerbandingan Metode peramalan timePerbandingan Metode peramalan time--seriesseriesseries series Metode BoxMetode Box--Jenkins Jenkins


Model Peramalan KausalModel Peramalan KausalModel Peramalan Kausal Model Peramalan Kausal

Model umum:Model umum:Model umum:Model umum:

xbay +=ˆBentuk lain model kausal :Bentuk lain model kausal :

EconometricEconometric–– EconometricEconometric–– InputInput--outputoutput–– Model SimulationModel SimulationModel Simulation Model Simulation –– LainLain--lainlain


Contoh Metode KausalContoh Metode KausalContoh Metode KausalContoh Metode Kausal

D F

Yt = a + b(t)t Dt F t1 120 119 .522 124 121 .183 119 122 843 119 122 .844 124 124 .55 125 126 .156 130 127 816 130 127 .817 129 .47

Intercept (a) 117 .8667Intercept (a) 117 .8667Slope (b) 1 .657143


F7 = 117.87 + 1.66 (7) = 129.47

Seleksi Metode PeramalanSeleksi Metode PeramalanSeleksi Metode PeramalanSeleksi Metode Peramalan

Pemakai dan sistem sophisticasiPemakai dan sistem sophisticasiPemakai dan sistem sophisticasiPemakai dan sistem sophisticasiWaktu dan ketersediaan sumberdayaWaktu dan ketersediaan sumberdayaP k i t k kt i tik k tP k i t k kt i tik k tPemakaian atau karakteristik keputusanPemakaian atau karakteristik keputusanKetersediaan data Ketersediaan data Pola data Pola data


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