Download - [ CAPITAL CLUB DINNER] 5 SKENARIO & Entry Strategy Non Farm Payroll

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Page 1: [ CAPITAL CLUB DINNER] 5 SKENARIO & Entry Strategy Non Farm Payroll

DATA EKONOMI USA

NON FARM PAYROLL / NFP

Capital Club DinnerCentral Capital Futures Institute

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APAKAH NFP?

• adalah data yang melaporkan jumlah yang di bayarkan kepada tenaga kerja AS, diluar pertanian, tidak termasuk didalamnya: 1. Pegawai pemerintah ; 2. Pegawai dalam setiap rumah tangga; 3. Pegawai yang bekerja pada organisasi LSM atau non profit/ nirlaba; 4. Pekerja/buruh.

• perbandingan antara upah mingguan yang di bayarkan kepada komponen Non – farm payroll dengan total upah yang di bayarkan kepada pekerja.

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MENGAPA NFP?

• Mencerminkan kondisi sektor komersil dan industri. Semakin tinggi nilainya berarti semakin tinggi tingkat pertumbuhan ekonomi.

• Menyumbang sekitar 80% GDP Amerika serikat (AS).

• Laporan NFP berguna bagi pemerintah AS untuk membuat kebijakan ekonomi pemerintahan dan juga dapat memprediksi aktivitas ekonomi dimasa mendatang

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KAPAN & SIAPA?

• Laporan ini dibuat oleh Lembaga Biro Pusat Statistik AS yang bernama US Bureau of Labor Statistics.

• Laporan ini dibuat satu bulan sekali, pada hari Jumat, minggu pertama(awal bulan) pada pukul 19.30 atau 20.30 WIB.

• Salah satu pengecualian hari ini karena tgl 4 Juli 2015 adalah peringatan hari kemerdekaan AS

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Siklus NFP

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http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls

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UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (Tingkat Pengangguran)

• Definisi Tingkat pengangguran dapat di definisikan sebagai jumlah orang aktif mencari pekerjaan di bagi dengan angkatan kerja. Perubahan pengangguran tergantung sebagian besar pada arus masuk terdiri dari non-orang yang bekerja mulai mencari pekerjaan, orang yang di pekerjakan, orang yang kehilangan pekerjaan dan mencari yang baru, dan orang – orang yang berhenti mencari pekerjaan.

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http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate

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US enemployment Rate

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NON FARM PAYROLL / NFPResearch and Strategy Development

Capital Club DinnerCentral Capital Futures Institute

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The last 12 months - NFP History

No DateTime Actual Consensus Previous1 6/5/2015 12:30 280 225 223

2 5/8/2015 12:30 223 224 126

3 4/3/2015 12:30 126 244 264

4 3/6/2015 13:30 264 240 201

5 2/6/2015 13:30 201 234 329

6 1/9/2015 13:30 329 240 353

7 12/5/2014 13:30 353 230 243

8 11/7/2014 13:30 243 231 256

9 10/3/2014 12:30 256 215 180

10 9/5/2014 12:30 180 225 212

11 8/1/2014 12:30 212 233 298

12 7/3/2014 12:30 298 212 224

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The last 12 months - NFP HistoryAnticipation Impact to EURUSD

No DateTime Actual Consensus Previous1 6/5/2015 12:30 280 225 223

2 5/8/2015 12:30 223 224 126

3 4/3/2015 12:30 126 244 264

4 3/6/2015 13:30 264 240 201

5 2/6/2015 13:30 201 234 329

6 1/9/2015 13:30 329 240 353

7 12/5/2014 13:30 353 230 243

8 11/7/2014 13:30 243 231 256

9 10/3/2014 12:30 256 215 180

10 9/5/2014 12:30 180 225 212

11 8/1/2014 12:30 212 233 298

12 7/3/2014 12:30 298 212 224

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The last 12 months - NFP HistoryAnticipation Impact to EURUSD

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NFP FORECAST – FOREXFACTORY CALENDAR

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5 SKENARIO

NO NFP OUTCOMELOWER LIMIT

UPPER LIMIT MOVEMENT ANTICIPATION

1WELL BELOW FORECAST 0 - 183

EURUSD STRONGLY BULLISH; PENETRATING 1 RESISTANT LEVEL; BACK INTO BEARISH CORRECTION

2BELOW FORECAST 184 - 206EURUSD TEMPORARY BULLISH CORRECTION; THEN FOLLOW BEARISH MOVEMENT

3WITHIN FORECAST 207 - 255 NORMAL BEARISH MOVEMENT

4ABOVE FORECAST 256 - 278EURUSD BEARISH; PENETRATING 1 OR MORE SUPPORT LEVEL

5WELL ABOVE FORECAST 279 - UNLIMITED

EURUSD STRONGLY BEARISH; PENETRATING 2 OR MORE SUPPORT LEVEL

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How to Enter the Market?

• Straddle Entry– 5 minutes before the NFP release

• Buy Stop at direct resistant level• Sell Stop at direct support level

– Advantages• Cost of Entry Minimized

– Disadvantages• Hectic market bigger spread acceleration

• Hedge Entry– 5 minutes before the NFP release

• Buy / Sell Market Order– Advantages

• Can follow both direction movement– Disadvantages

• Expensive Cost of Entry (Com+spread x 2)

• Premature Entry Used Today !– 4 minutes before the NFP release

• Enter market by market order (Sell Market Order)• Projection by using statistical model (regression, etc)

– Advantages / Disadvantages• Others?

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5 SKENARIO & Entry Strategy

NO NFP OUTCOMELOWER LIMIT

UPPER LIMIT MOVEMENT ANTICIPATION

Entry Strategy Recommendation

1WELL BELOW FORECAST

0 - 183EURUSD STRONGLY BULLISH; PENETRATING 1 RESISTANT LEVEL; BACK INTO BEARISH CORRECTION

Hedge Entry

2BELOW FORECAST 184 - 206

EURUSD TEMPORARY BULLISH CORRECTION; THEN FOLLOW BEARISH MOVEMENT Hedge Entry

3WITHIN FORECAST 207 - 255 NORMAL BEARISH MOVEMENT

Stay away / wait for normal spread to Single Entry Direction/ Find the direct resistant level

4ABOVE FORECAST 256 - 278

EURUSD BEARISH; PENETRATING 1 OR MORE SUPPORT LEVEL Single / Premature Bearish

Entry

5WELL ABOVE FORECAST 279 - UNLIMIT

ED

EURUSD STRONGLY BEARISH; PENETRATING 2 OR MORE SUPPORT LEVEL

Single / Premature Bearish Entry

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Lets Do It!

Putting it all in action!And

May God bless you all…

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TERIMA KASIH