Kebijkan Moneter Tumpak Silalahi
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Transcript of Kebijkan Moneter Tumpak Silalahi
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KEBIJAKAN MONETER II:
SASARAN TUNGGAL KESTABILAN HARGA
BAURAN KEBIJAKAN (MAKRO PRUDENTIAL)
FAKULTAS EKONOMIIPB
Pusat Riset dan Edukasi Bank SentralBank Indonesia
Bogor, 3 Desember 2013
1MATA KULIAH
K E B A N K S E N T R A L A N
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Starting from July 2005, Bank Indonesia implements a new monetary policy
framework consistent with the Inflation Targeting Framework (ITF).
In line with the central bank act no. 23/1999 and its amendment (act
no.3/2004)
Enhance BIs credibility as inflation controller through commitment to hit
inflation target.
Research: more difficult to control monetary aggregate
Comply with sound monetary policy principles. Empirical experience of other countries: ITF countries success to
reduce inflation without increasing output volatility.
Why Inflation Targeting Framework?
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0/1 MMm
OPERASI MONETER:
Sasaran operasional:Uang Primer (Mo)
Instrumen: OPT
SASARAN ANTARA:
Uang beredar: M1,
M2
SASARAN AKHIR:
Inflasi
Pertumbuhan
ekonomi
),,( YrMM DS
),( Othersrfr CB
OPERASI MONETER:
Sasaran operasional: suku
bunga jangka pendek (rCB)
Instrumen: OPT
INDIKATOR KEBIJAKANInformation Variable
Suku bunga jk panjang (r)
Uang beredar: M1, M2
Kredit, nilai tukar, dll.
SASARAN AKHIR:
Inflasi
Pertumbuhan
ekonomi
proyeksiModel
Short-run
Phillips CurveSasaran suku bunga(price-based appr oach ) - BI sejak Juli 2005 via ITF
Sasaran uang beredar (quant i ty based appro ach) - BI sebelum Juli 2005
KERANGKA KERJA KEBIJAKAN MONETER
Inflasi sebagai sasaran akhir jangka panjang. Is no t a rule ; just a framework Dalam penetapan sasaran inflasi jangka menengah panjang, dipertimbangkan sasaran yang optimal
berdasarkan social welfare loss function implikasi dari tradeoff antara price dan output.
3
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The Strategic Framework (1)
4
Indonesia has been practicing Inflation Targeting Framework (ITF) since 2000, butstill use base money as operating target.
Efforts for strengthening the framework: (i) Research and model for forecasting,
(ii) Regular board meeting, and (iii) Communication.
Starting July 2005, enhanced framework consistent with the implementation of ITF
is introduced with four key elements:
1. BI Rate as a policy reference rate,
2. Forward looking strategy of monetary policy making,
3. More transparent communication strategy
4. Improved coordination with Government.
The new framework is intended to enhance the effectiveness and governance of
monetary policy making for achieving price stability to support economic growth
and welfare.
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The Strategic Framework (2)
Key Features of the Framework
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The Strategic Framework (3)
Inflation Targeting: A Framework, Not A Rule6
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Keterkaitan antara Variabel dan Pencapaian Sasaran Inflasi dalam IT
OPT
SBI
FASBI
FTO
BI Rate
Likuiditas
Pasar Uang
GWM
Sterilisasi
Valas
Suku Bunga
Kredit
Balance Sheet
Harga Aset
Ekspektasi
NILAI TUKAR
Indikator
Aktiva DN Bersih
Fasilitas pendanaan
Pinjaman bank
Total
Supply
Total
Demand
OUTPUT
GAP
Tekanan
Inflasi
Domestik
INFLASI
Tekanan
Inflasi
Eksternal
Indikator
Suku bunga PUAB, deposito,
dan pinjaman
IHSG, nilai tukar
Indikator
Indeks Harga
Impor
Indikator
Survey/Leading
Output Gap
Policy Severity
Indikator IHK
Headline/
Core
Harga Aset
Adm/Trade/
Volatile
Besaran Moneter
7
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Main indicators for setting monetary policy response are inflationand economic growth.
Monetary policy response consider behavior of linkage among
economic variables and monetary policy transmission.
Monetary policy formulation considers government economic
policy.
To support analysis of inflation and economic growths forecast,
and relationship among economic variables:>Economic Model
>Information Variable
Policy Formulation (1)
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9Policy Formulation (2)
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10Policy Formulation (3)
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11Monetary Policy Response (1)
Monetary Policy Response The monetary policy stance is determined each month in the monthly Board
Meeting, drawing on material within a monthly scope.
Monetary policy stance (BI Rate) is effective until the next Board Meeting.
The decision concerning the monetary police stance (BI Rate) takes into account the
monetary policy lag in influencing inflation.
In unforeseen circumstances, the monetary policy stance may be adjusted in
advance of the Monthly Board Meeting in a weekly Board Meeting.
Magnitude of Change in the BI Rate
The monetary policy stance is expressed in changes to the BI Rate (consistent and
progressive in increments of 25 bps). Under conditions indicating the need for
stronger intentions on the part of Bank Indonesia for achievement of the inflation target,
the BI Rate may be adjusted by more than 25 bps in increments of 25 bps
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12Monetary Policy Response (2)
The BI Rate is the policy rate reflecting the monetary policy stance adopted byBank Indonesia and announced to the public.
The BI Rate is announced after monthly Board of Governors Meeting. It is
implemented in the Bank Indonesia monetary operations conducted by means
of liquidity management on the money market to achieve the monetary policy
operational target.
The monetary policy operational target is reflected in movement in the Interbank
Overnight (O/N) Rate. It is then expected that bank deposit rates will track the
movement in interbank rates, with bank lending rates to follow suit.
While other factors in the economy are also taken into account, Bank Indonesiawill normally raisethe BI Rate if future inflation is forecasted aheadof the
established inflation target. Conversely, Bank Indonesia will lower the BI Rate if
future inflation is predicted belowthe inflation target.
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13Monetary Policy Response (3)
Basic Consideration to decide Policy Response:
BI Rate is central bank response on future pressure on inflation gap
BI Rate is set discretionary by Board of Governor considering:
> BI Rate recommendation from economic model
> other information: leading indicators, survey, anecdotal
information, information variable, expert opinion, risk factor
assessment and uncertainty, economic and monetary policy
research.
BI Rate is changed mainly if inflation gap forecast is considered
permanent and consistent with other information and indicators.
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Bank sentral secara eksplisit memiliki target inflasi dan berjanji untukmencapai target tsb pada suatu periode waktu tertentu(time horizon).
BS melakukan forecastinflasidng semua informasi yang ada.
BS menggunakan instrumen kebijakan moneter untuk mencapai target
inflasi tersebut.Jika forecastinflasi berbeda dng target inflasi, BS melakukan perubahan
stance kebijakan moneter (umumnya menggunakan Taylors type rule):
r = rt -1+ (-*) + (y - y*); dimana , >0
Jika gagal mencapai target, harus menjelaskan ke publik.
BS memberikan laporan secara reguler kpd publikmengenai outlook
inflasi dan kebijakan yang diambil.
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Monetary Policy Response (3)
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Kerangka Operasional Kebijakan Moneter (BI-rate)Menggunakan Koridor Suku Bunga
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16Operational Framework (1)
To achieve the overriding monetary policy objective, Bank Indonesia hasimplemented a monetary policy framework for management of interest rates (interest
rate target).
The policy rate, commonly known as the BI Rate. At the operational level, the BI
Rate is reflected in movement in the Interbank Overnight (O/N) Rate.
The interbank money market is the activity of lending and borrowing money betweenone bank and another bank. An interbank rate represents the price formed in a deal
between parties lending and borrowing funds.
Activity on the interbank is conducted over the counter (OTC) through deals between
borrowers and holders of funds arranged without passing through an exchange floor.
Interbank tenors range from one working day (overnight) to one year.
Bank Indonesia will work consistently to safeguard and fulfill the liquidity needs of the
banking system while maintaining the equilibrium for formation of fair, stable interest
rates by doing monetary operation.
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17Operational Framework (2)
Monetary Operations represent the implementation of themonetary policy adopted by Bank Indonesia for the purpose of
liquidity managementand are conducted through Open Market
Operations and Standing Facilities.
Open Market Operations, or OMO, are transactionsconducted
by Bank Indonesia on the money market with banks and/or other
parties within the framework of Monetary Operations, while
Standing Facilities consist of lending facilities extended by Bank
Indonesia to banks and/or other parties and deposit facilitiesextended to banks and/or other parties at Bank Indonesia for the
purpose of Monetary Operations.
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Karakteristik OPT SFInisiatif (vol) BI Bank
Fungsi dlm mgt
likuiditas
Smoothingvolatilitas suku
bunga PUAB O/N
Koridor Suku Bunga PUAB O/N
Mekanisme Transaksi Lelang Non-lelang
ketersediaan Tdk harus setiap hari Setiap hari
Peserta Bank & Lembaga Perantara Bank
Jangka Waktu Di atas O/N O/N
Instrumen Penerbitan SBI
Repo
Reverse Repo
Pembelian dan PenjualanSBN
Term Deposit
Deposit facility
Lending facility
Setelmen < T+1
(dpt quick setelmen, T+0, T+1)
T+0
OPERASI MONETER (OM):OPERASI PASAR TERBUKA (OPT) & STANDING FACILITIES(SF)
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Penyempurnaan Operasi
Kerangka Operasional Baru19
Deposit Facility
(d/h FASBI o /n)
=5,5%
Waktu
BI Rat e
= 6,5%
Lend ing Facility
(d/h Repo o/n)
= 7,5%PUAB o/n
Interes
tR
ate
Corr
idor
Interest Rate
Repo (d/h FTE)
Term Depo sit (d/h FTK)
SBI
Reverse Repo
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20Operational FrameworkMonetary Operation Instruments of Bank Indonesia
Operational Framework
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Operational FrameworkCharacteristics of Monetary Operation Instruments of Bank Indonesia
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Dampak likuiditasMengurangi
likuiditas
Mengurangi
likuiditas
Mengurangi
likuiditas
Mengurangi
likuiditas
Mengurangi
likuiditas
Menambah
likuiditas
Menambah
likuiditas
Frekuensi
transaksiBerkala Sewaktu-waktu Sewaktu-waktu Berkala Sewaktu-waktu Sewaktu-waktu Sewaktu-waktu
Jangka waktu
1 bln s.d. 12 bln
(dinyatakan dlm.
hari)
1 hari s.d. 12 bln
(dinyatakan dlm.
hari)
1 hari s.d. 12 bln
(dinyatakan dlm.
hari)
1 bln s.d. 12 bln
(dinyatakan dlm.
hari)
Untuk Transaksi
Swap s.d. 12 bln.
1 hari s.d. 12 bln
(dinyatakan dlm.
hari)
Untuk Transaksi
Swap s.d. 12 bln.
Nominal
pengajuan
minimal
Rp1.000jt Rp1.000jt Rp1.000jt Rp1.000jt Rp1.000jt
Nominal kelipatan Rp100jt Rp100jt Rp100jt Rp100jt Rp100jt
Mekanisme
transaksiLelang VRT
Lelang VRT dan/
atau FRTLelang VRT
Lelang (non
kompetitif)
Lelang VRT dan/
atau FRT
Setelmen s.d. T + 1 s.d. T + 1 s.d. T + 1 T + 0 T + 2 s.d. T + 1 T + 2
PesertaBank
Konvensional
Bank
Konvensional
Bank
Konvensional
Bank Syariah/
UUS
Bank
Konvensional
Bank
Konvensional
Bank
Konvensional
Instrumen dan
Keterangan
Absorpsi Likuiditas Injeksi Likuiditas
Penerbitan SBI Term DepositReverse Repo
SBN
Penerbitan
SBIS
Sterilisasi FX
(Spot jual USD
dan SWAP beli)
Repo
Sterilisasi FX
(Spot beli USD
dan SWAP jual)
Operational Framework
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Operational FrameworkCharacteristics of Monetary Operation Instruments of Bank Indonesia
22
Deposit
Facil ity
FASBIS Lending
Facil ity
Repo
SBIS/SBSN
Dampak likuiditasMengurangi
likuiditas
Mengurangi
likuiditas
Menambah
likuiditas
Menambah
likuiditas
Frekuensi transaksiSetiap Hari
Kerja
Setiap Hari
Kerja
Setiap Hari
Kerja
Setiap Hari
Kerja
Jangka waktu overnight overnight overnight overnight
Nominal pengajuan
minimalRp1.000jt Rp1.000jt Rp1.000jt Rp1.000jt
Nominal kelipatan Rp100jt Rp100jt Rp100jt Rp100jt
Mekanisme
transaksiFRT FRT FRT FRT
Setelmen T + 0 T + 0 T + 0 T + 0
Suku bunga BI Rate 100bps
BI Rate
100bpsBI Rate +100bps
BI Rate +100bps
Peserta Bank Bank Bank Bank
Instrumen dan
Keterangan
Penempatan Dana Penyediaan Dana
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PBI OM Pasal 13 ayat 1:Dalam jangka waktu tertentu sejak memiliki SBI, pemilik SBI dilarang melakukan transaksi
atas SBI yang dimilikinya dengan pihak lain.
SE OPT: Definisi
Kewajiban bagi pembeli SBI baik di pasar primer maupun di pasar sekunder untuk
mempertahankan kepemilikannya minimal selama 1 bulan (28 hari kalender).
SE OPT: Transaksi SBI yang tidak diperbolehkan selama masa hold ing Transaksi repo(sell & buy back dan collateralized);
Transaksi outright;
Transaksi pengagunan; dan
Transaksi hibah.
SE OPT: Transaksi SBI yang diperbolehkan selama masa hold ing
1. Transaksi dengan Bank Indonesia, baik yang bersifat repo(d/r FLI, Repo SBI) maupun
pengagunan (d/r FPJP); dan2. Transaksi SBI yang dilakukan setelah berlakunya PBI OM yang merupakan bagian dari
transaksi yang telah dilakukan sebelum PBI OM ini diberlakukan, sampai dengan transaksi
yang bersangkutan jatuh waktu.
Sub-Registry wajib menatausahakan SBI milik nasabahnya dengan memenuhi ketentuan
sebagaimana di atas.
OPTSBI : minimum 1 month holding period
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Kebijakan Makro Prudential
24
Perlkembangan terkini, Semakin Banyak Bank SentralMenerapkan Bauran Kebijakan ITF dan MakroPrudential,
disebabkan oleh:
Bubble Harga Asset
Global Financial Crisis 2008 memberikan pelajaran pentingnya Policy
Mix Macro Prudential Instruments.
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