Pengantar Demografi.ppt
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Pengantar DemografiPengantar Demografi
SUWONO, SHSUWONO, SH
KEPALA BIDANG KBKEPALA BIDANG KB
BKKBN KAB . MADIUNBKKBN KAB . MADIUN
suwonowono!"#oo.$o.%&/suwono'o(o!"#oo.$o(suwonowono!"#oo.$o.%&/suwono'o(o!"#oo.$o(
081 335 163 420
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1. Asal-usul ilmu demografi1. Asal-usul ilmu demografi
K"'" &*(o+"-% *"s" &"% "#"s" un"n%,K"'" &*(o+"-% *"s" &"% "#"s" un"n%,
!"n+ '*&%% &"% "'"!"n+ '*&%% &"% "'"
demosdemos, !"n+ "'%n!" "!"'/*n&u&u , !"n+ "'%n!" "!"'/*n&u&u grafein grafein, !"n+ "'%n!" (*nu%s., !"n+ "'%n!" (*nu%s.
P*n&u&u "&""# o"n+ &""( ("'"n!" s*"+"% &%% %"&%,"n++o'" *u"+", "n++o'" ("s!"""', w"+" n*+"", &"n
#%(un"n u"n'%'"s !"n+ *'*("' '%n++" &% su"'u '*("'
&""( "'"s w%"!"# n*+"" "&" w"'u '*'*n'u 3UU 10/924
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O&* L"("
Pon"'"%sPon"'"%s P*s%&*n So*"no "&" '"#un 196 *n"# *"'", B"+% s"!",P*s%&*n So*"no "&" '"#un 196 *n"# *"'", B"+% s"!",
*n!**s"%"nn!" %""# (*(u" '"n"# *%# u"s "+%, s*" *n!**s"%"nn!" %""# (*(u" '"n"# *%# u"s "+%, s*" %" *n+"u (*(u" s*uu# '"n"# &% In&on*s%", *n+"u &""' %" *n+"u (*(u" s*uu# '"n"# &% In&on*s%", *n+"u &""'
(*(*% (""n 250 8u'" 8%w", &"n s"!" #"n!" un!" 10) 8u'"(*(*% (""n 250 8u'" 8%w", &"n s"!" #"n!" un!" 10) 8u'" 8%w" ... D""( n*+*%u, ("%n "n!" 3"n"4 ("%n "%. 8%w" ... D""( n*+*%u, ("%n "n!" 3"n"4 ("%n "%. P*("'"s"n *"#%"n '*u'"(" on'"s*s% *'*n'"n+"nP*("'"s"n *"#%"n '*u'"(" on'"s*s% *'*n'"n+"n
&*n+"n (o" "n+s" In&on*s%" &"n #"n!" &""' &%s*'u8u% 8%"&*n+"n (o" "n+s" In&on*s%" &"n #"n!" &""' &%s*'u8u% 8%"&%("su&"n un'u (*n+"'u *"#%"n &*(% (*n8"+"&%("su&"n un'u (*n+"'u *"#%"n &*(% (*n8"+"*s*#"'"n %u.*s*#"'"n %u.
K*'%&"s*'u8u"n 'oo#'oo# "+"(".K*'%&"s*'u8u"n 'oo#'oo# "+"(". P*(%n'""n &% ""n+"n %u%u !"n+ '%n++" &% w%"!"#P*(%n'""n &% ""n+"n %u%u !"n+ '%n++" &% w%"!"#
*o'""n &"n **n&%&%"n '%n++%. *o'""n &"n **n&%&%"n '%n++%.
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O&* B"u
An'%n"'"%sAn'%n"'"%s :"#un 1967 P*s%&*n Su#"'o (*n"n&"'"n+"n% Un%'*& N"'%ons:"#un 1967 P*s%&*n Su#"'o (*n"n&"'"n+"n% Un%'*& N"'%ons
D*$"""'%on on Pou"'%on *s"(" 29 *(%(%n "%n &%D*$"""'%on on Pou"'%on *s"(" 29 *(%(%n "%n &%&un%".&un%".
P*s%&*n Su#"'o &""( %&"'on!" '"n++" 16 A+us'us 1967P*s%&*n Su#"'o &""( %&"'on!" '"n++" 16 A+us'us 1967(*n!"'""n; In&on*s%" #"us *n"*n" (*(*#"'%"n(*n!"'""n; In&on*s%" #"us *n"*n" (*(*#"'%"nus"#" *("'"s"n *"#%"n.us"#" *("'"s"n *"#%"n.
D*""s% (*n+"u% *n*n'u"n 8u("# &"n 8"" *"#%"nD*""s% (*n+"u% *n*n'u"n 8u("# &"n 8"" *"#%"n"n" s*"+"% #" &"s" ("nus%"."n" s*"+"% #" &"s" ("nus%".
P*(*n'u"n L*("+" K*u"+" B**n$"n" N"s%on" "&"P*(*n'u"n L*("+" K*u"+" B**n$"n" N"s%on" "&"O'o* 196<.O'o* 196<.
P*(*n'u"n B"&"n Koo&%n"s% K*u"+" B**n$"n" N"s%on"P*(*n'u"n B"&"n Koo&%n"s% K*u"+" B**n$"n" N"s%on" "&" '"#un 1970. "&" '"#un 1970.
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O'ono(% &"*"#O'ono(% &"*"#
K*%8""n *(*%n'"# &"*"#K*%8""n *(*%n'"# &"*"#
Isu u'"("; u"%'"s su(* &"!" ("nus%"Isu u'"("; u"%'"s su(* &"!" ("nus%"
*n&u&u '*u'"(" *s*#"'"n, *n&u&u '*u'"(" *s*#"'"n, *n&%&%"n, *n&%&%"n,*ono(%, &"n (*n'" ("s%# #"us &%'%n+"'"n*ono(%, &"n (*n'" ("s%# #"us &%'%n+"'"n
"+" *n&u&u &""' (*n8"&% *"u &"n $"on"+" *n&u&u &""' (*n8"&% *"u &"n $"on
*"u *("n+un"n !"n+ *-%s%*n &"n *-*'%-. *"u *("n+un"n !"n+ *-%s%*n &"n *-*'%-.
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O'ono(% &"*"#O'ono(% &"*"#
K*%8""n *(*%n'"# &"*"#K*%8""n *(*%n'"# &"*"#
Isu u'"("; u"%'"s su(* &"!" ("nus%"Isu u'"("; u"%'"s su(* &"!" ("nus%"
*n&u&u '*u'"(" *s*#"'"n, *n&u&u '*u'"(" *s*#"'"n, *n&%&%"n, *n&%&%"n,*ono(%, &"n (*n'" ("s%# #"us &%'%n+"'"n*ono(%, &"n (*n'" ("s%# #"us &%'%n+"'"n
"+" *n&u&u &""' (*n8"&% *"u &"n $"on"+" *n&u&u &""' (*n8"&% *"u &"n $"on
*"u *("n+un"n !"n+ *-%s%*n &"n *-*'%-. *"u *("n+un"n !"n+ *-%s%*n &"n *-*'%-.
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Achille Guillard 1885!Achille Guillard 1885!
D*(o+"-% "&""# 'u%s"n'u%s"n "'"uD*(o+"-% "&""# 'u%s"n'u%s"n "'"u
""n+"n""n+"n (*n+*n"% "!"' "'"u""n+"n""n+"n (*n+*n"% "!"' "'"u
*n&u&u. *n&u&u.
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Donald ". #ogue 1$%3!Donald ". #ogue 1$%3!
D*(o+"-% "&""# %(u !"n+ (*(*"8"%D*(o+"-% "&""# %(u !"n+ (*(*"8"%
s*$"" s'"'%s'% &"n ("'*("'% '*n'"n+ *s",s*$"" s'"'%s'% &"n ("'*("'% '*n'"n+ *s",
o(os%s% &"n &%s'%us% *n&u&u &"no(os%s% &"n &%s'%us% *n&u&u &"n
*u"#"n*u"#"nn!" s*"n8"n+ ("s" *u"#"n*u"#"nn!" s*"n8"n+ ("s"
(*"u% **8"n!" %(" o(on*n &*(o+"-%(*"u% **8"n!" %(" o(on*n &*(o+"-%
!"%'u *"#%"n 3-*'%%'"s4, *("'%"n!"%'u *"#%"n 3-*'%%'"s4, *("'%"n
3(o'"%'"s4, *"w%n"n, (%+"s% &"n3(o'"%'"s4, *"w%n"n, (%+"s% &"n(o%%'"s sos%".(o%%'"s sos%".
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#a&a' demografi(#a&a' demografi( "ohn Graunt"ohn Graunt
M*n+"n"%s%s &"'" *"#%"n &"n *("'%"nM*n+"n"%s%s &"'" *"#%"n &"n *("'%"n
!"n+ &%*o*# &"% $"'"'"n *("'%"n 3!"n+ &%*o*# &"% $"'"'"n *("'%"n 3bills ofbills of
mortalitymortality4 !"n+ s*'%" (%n++u &%'*%'"n o*#4 !"n+ s*'%" (%n++u &%'*%'"n o*#
*'u+"s +**8". *'u+"s +**8".
M*n$*'us"n =#uu(#uu( '*n'"n+M*n$*'us"n =#uu(#uu( '*n'"n+
*'u(u#"n *n&u&u *'u(u#"n *n&u&u (Natural and Political(Natural and Political
Observations, Made Upon the Bills ofObservations, Made Upon the Bills of
Mortality Mortality, 16624., 16624.
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)lmu demografi ter*agi men+adi dua)lmu demografi ter*agi men+adi dua
D*(o+"-% (un% 3D*(o+"-% (un% 3 pure demography pure demography44
D*(o+"-% -o(" !"n+ (*n+#"s%"n '*n%D*(o+"-% -o(" !"n+ (*n+#"s%"n '*n%
'*n% un'u (*n+#%'un+ %n&%"'o%n&%"'o'*n% un'u (*n+#%'un+ %n&%"'o%n&%"'o
&*(o+"-%.&*(o+"-%.
S'u&% "'"u "n"%s%s **n&u&u"nS'u&% "'"u "n"%s%s **n&u&u"n
S'u&% (*n+*n"% #uun+"n "n'"" -"'o-"'oS'u&% (*n+*n"% #uun+"n "n'"" -"'o-"'o *u"#"n *n&u&u &"n -"'o-"'o *u"#"n *n&u&u &"n -"'o-"'o
*("n+un"n. *("n+un"n.
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2. :*o%'*o% **n&u&u"n; D"%2. :*o%'*o% **n&u&u"n; D"%
M"'#us * N*oM"'#us%"nM"'#us * N*oM"'#us%"n
,eori 'e&endudu'an,eori 'e&endudu'an
#uun+"n "n'"" *n&u&u &"n *'*"'"s"n#uun+"n "n'"" *n&u&u &"n *'*"'"s"n
su(* ""(/"n+"n 3*n&u&u o'%(u(4su(* ""(/"n+"n 3*n&u&u o'%(u(4
#uun+"n "n'"" *n&u&u &"#uun+"n "n'"" *n&u&u &"n %n+un+"nn %n+un+"n
33carrying capacitycarrying capacity/&"!" &uun+4/&"!" &uun+4
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:#o("s >o*' M"'#us; :*o%:#o("s >o*' M"'#us; :*o%
K**%#"n P*n&u&u K**%#"n P*n&u&u
M*n+*("n+"n *(%%"n !"n+ su&"#M*n+*("n+"n *(%%"n !"n+ su&"#
&%*("n+"n o*# "!"#n!", D"n%* M"'#us,&%*("n+"n o*# "!"#n!", D"n%* M"'#us,
(*n+*n"% #uun+"n "n'"" *n&u&u &"n(*n+*n"% #uun+"n "n'"" *n&u&u &"n
"n+"n. "n+"n.
D%'*%'"n *'"(" "% s*"+"%D%'*%'"n *'"(" "% s*"+"% Essay on the Essay on the
Principle of Population Principle of Population 3179<4.3179<4.
Over population theoryOver population theory
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,iga &ro&osisi *esar ,.. althus,iga &ro&osisi *esar ,.. althus
1.1. P*n&u&u &%"'"s% o*# su(*su(*P*n&u&u &%"'"s% o*# su(*su(*sus%s'*ns%/"n+"n.sus%s'*ns%/"n+"n.
2.2. P*n&u&u &*n+"n s*n&%%n!" ""n (*n%n+"' ""uP*n&u&u &*n+"n s*n&%%n!" ""n (*n%n+"' ""u
su(*su(* sus%s'*ns% (*n%n+"', *$u"% ""usu(*su(* sus%s'*ns% (*n%n+"', *$u"% ""u"&" *n+#"("'."&" *n+#"("'.
).). P*n+#"("' '*s*u', &"n *n+#"("' !"n+ (*n*"nP*n+#"("' '*s*u', &"n *n+#"("' !"n+ (*n*"n*u"'"n **("n+"n *n&u&u, s*'" *n"#"n*u"'"n **("n+"n *n&u&u, s*'" *n"#"n
&"("n!" "&" '%n+"' sus%s'*ns%, s*(u"n!" &""'&"("n!" "&" '%n+"' sus%s'*ns%, s*(u"n!" &""'&%*$"#"n (*"u% *'"#"n"n (o", *8"#"'"n, &"n&%*$"#"n (*"u% *'"#"n"n (o", *8"#"'"n, &"n*s*n+s"""n.*s*n+s"""n.
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09/27/1509/27/15 1919
Penda&at althus /ang ter'enalPenda&at althus /ang ter'enal
K""u '%&" "&" #""n+"n ("" *n&u&uK""u '%&" "&" #""n+"n ("" *n&u&u
""n 'u(u# (*nuu' &**' uu s*&"n+"n""n 'u(u# (*nuu' &**' uu s*&"n+"n
su(*su(* "n+"n #"n!" ""nsu(*su(* "n+"n #"n!" ""n
**("n+ (*nuu' &**' #%'un+. **("n+ (*nuu' &**' #%'un+.
DE>E: HI:UNG ; 1,2,),,5,6 &s'DE>E: UKU> ; 1,2,,<,16 &s'
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09/27/1509/27/15 2020
ontohontoh
L*&""n *n&u&u 3L*&""n *n&u&u 3 population boom population boom4 &% oon% "u Eo",4 &% oon% "u Eo",A(*%" U'"". "n+ '"n"#n!" s"n+"' u"s &"n "!" ""nA(*%" U'"". "n+ '"n"#n!" s"n+"' u"s &"n "!" ""nsu(*su(* ""(. P*n&u&u **("n+ &*n+"n "("'su(*su(* ""(. P*n&u&u **("n+ &*n+"n "("'
*s"', (*n8"&% '%+" "% %"' &""( &u" 324 ""&, 111 8u'" *s"', (*n8"&% '%+" "% %"' &""( &u" 324 ""&, 111 8u'"o"n+ "&" '"#un 1650 (*n8"&% ))0 8u'" o"n+ "&" '"#uno"n+ "&" '"#un 1650 (*n8"&% ))0 8u'" o"n+ "&" '"#un1<50.1<50.
Preventive check Preventive check 3*n+*"n+ *n$*+"#4; uu"n *u"+" *$%3*n+*"n+ *n$*+"#4; uu"n *u"+" *$%&"n us%" *"w%n"n '%n++%, '*u'"(" &% n*+""n*+"" Eo"&"n us%" *"w%n"n '%n++%, '*u'"(" &% n*+""n*+"" Eo"!"n+ su&"# ("8u %(u *n+*'"#u"nn!"..!"n+ su&"# ("8u %(u *n+*'"#u"nn!"..
Preventive checks Preventive checks "%nn!"; #o(os*su"%'"s, *?%n"#"n, KB,"%nn!"; #o(os*su"%'"s, *?%n"#"n, KB,&"n "os% 3M"'#us '%&" (*n&uun+n!"4.&"n "os% 3M"'#us '%&" (*n&uun+n!"4.
Positive checks Positive checks 3*n+*"n+ os%'%-4@ *"n+, *%&*(%, *n$"n"3*n+*"n+ os%'%-4@ *"n+, *%&*(%, *n$"n"""(, &"n *"""n **"n8"n+"n, !"n+ u(u(n!" '%n++% &%""(, &"n *"""n **"n8"n+"n, !"n+ u(u(n!" '%n++% &%n*+""n*+"" !"n+ *u( ("8u %(u *n+*'"#u"nn!".n*+""n*+"" !"n+ *u( ("8u %(u *n+*'"#u"nn!".
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Pemi'iran &ada +aman althusPemi'iran &ada +aman althus
iminishing returns iminishing returns 3*"&""n #"s% !"n+ ("%n3*"&""n #"s% !"n+ ("%n *u"n+4 &"% '"n"#, &""( *"&""n s'"'%s 3$*'*%s *u"n+4 &"% '"n"#, &""( *"&""n s'"'%s 3$*'*%s "%us4. "%us4.
P"n&"n+"n M"'#us;P"n&"n+"n M"'#us; S*"(" su(*su(* sus%s'*ns% 8"u# (**%#%S*"(" su(*su(* sus%s'*ns% 8"u# (**%#%
*u'u#"n *n&u&u ("" *n&u&u ""n*u'u#"n *n&u&u ("" *n&u&u ""n **("n+ $*"' un'u (*n$""% *s*%("n+"n **("n+ $*"' un'u (*n$""% *s*%("n+"n
&*n+"n su(*su(* sus%s'*ns% !"n+ "&".&*n+"n su(*su(* sus%s'*ns% !"n+ "&". K""u su(*su(* sus%s'*ns% &%'%n+"'"n (""K""u su(*su(* sus%s'*ns% &%'%n+"'"n (""
*n&u&u &""' 'u(u# *%# $*"' "+%. *n&u&u &""' 'u(u# *%# $*"' "+%.
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K%'% '*#"&" M"'#us 3An'%K%'% '*#"&" M"'#us 3An'%
M"'#us%"n, A"& 194M"'#us%"n, A"& 194 M"'#us '%&" s*'u8u un&"n+un&"n+ *(%s%n"nM"'#us '%&" s*'u8u un&"n+un&"n+ *(%s%n"n
33 poor la!s poor la!s4 !"n+ (*(*% "n'u"n *"&" o"n+4 !"n+ (*(*% "n'u"n *"&" o"n+(%s%n.(%s%n.
M"'#us **n&""' "#w" "n'u"n *"&" o"n+M"'#us **n&""' "#w" "n'u"n *"&" o"n+(%s%n s"(" &*n+"n (*n%n+"'"n su(*su(*(%s%n s"(" &*n+"n (*n%n+"'"n su(*su(*sus%s'*ns% o"n+o"n+ (%s%n, !"n+ "*n"n!" ""nsus%s'*ns% o"n+o"n+ (%s%n, !"n+ "*n"n!" ""n'*&oon+ un'u (*(un!"% "n" *%# "n!".'*&oon+ un'u (*(un!"% "n" *%# "n!".
M"'#us **n&""' 8%" o"n+ (%s%n '%&" &%"n'uM"'#us **n&""' 8%" o"n+ (%s%n '%&" &%"n'u("" *%"u (**" ""n *u"# &"n (**" ""n("" *%"u (**" ""n *u"# &"n (**" ""n(*n+u"n+% 8u("# "n" (**".(*n+u"n+% 8u("# "n" (**".
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09/27/1509/27/15 2)2)
riti' terhada& althusriti' terhada& althus
P*'%("n+"n *ono(%; (*n*"n"n -"'o-"'oP*'%("n+"n *ono(%; (*n*"n"n -"'o-"'os**'% **("n+"n '*noo+%, *("+%"ns**'% **("n+"n '*noo+%, *("+%"n
**8""n &"n u"#. **8""n &"n u"#.
P*'%("n+"n &*(o+"-%; '*u'"(" *n*(u"n &"nP*'%("n+"n &*(o+"-%; '*u'"(" *n*(u"n &"n *(%%"n (*n+*n"% **("n+"n *n&u&u *(%%"n (*n+*n"% **("n+"n *n&u&u33 population trends population trends4 &"n -*'%%'"s, !"n+ *"w"n"n4 &"n -*'%%'"s, !"n+ *"w"n"n&*n+"n oos%s% "s% M"'#us (*n+*n"% *n&u&u&*n+"n oos%s% "s% M"'#us (*n+*n"% *n&u&u3'*u'"(" &% Eo"4.3'*u'"(" &% Eo"4.
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Per'em*angan &ere'onomianPer'em*angan &ere'onomian
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Penda&at arshalPenda&at arshal
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Analisis demografiAnalisis demografi
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O&* B"u
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