Pengantar Demografi.ppt

39
09/27/15 09/27/15 1 1 Pengantar Demografi Pengantar Demografi SUWONO, SH SUWONO, SH KEPA LA BIDANG KB KEPA LA BIDANG KB BKKBN KAB . MADIUN BKKBN KAB . MADIUN suwonowono!"#oo.$o.%&/suwono'o(o!"#oo.$o( suwonowono!"#oo.$o.%&/suwono'o(o!"#oo.$o( 081 335 163 420

Transcript of Pengantar Demografi.ppt

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Pengantar DemografiPengantar Demografi

SUWONO, SHSUWONO, SH

KEPALA BIDANG KBKEPALA BIDANG KB

BKKBN KAB . MADIUNBKKBN KAB . MADIUN

suwonowono!"#oo.$o.%&/suwono'o(o!"#oo.$o(suwonowono!"#oo.$o.%&/suwono'o(o!"#oo.$o(

081 335 163 420

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09/27/1509/27/15 22

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09/27/1509/27/15 ))

1. Asal-usul ilmu demografi1. Asal-usul ilmu demografi

K"'" &*(o+"-% *"s" &"% "#"s" un"n%,K"'" &*(o+"-% *"s" &"% "#"s" un"n%,

!"n+ '*&%% &"% "'"!"n+ '*&%% &"% "'"

demosdemos, !"n+ "'%n!" "!"'/*n&u&u , !"n+ "'%n!" "!"'/*n&u&u   grafein grafein, !"n+ "'%n!" (*nu%s., !"n+ "'%n!" (*nu%s.

P*n&u&u "&""# o"n+ &""( ("'"n!" s*"+"% &%% %"&%,"n++o'" *u"+", "n++o'" ("s!"""', w"+" n*+"", &"n

#%(un"n u"n'%'"s !"n+ *'*("' '%n++" &% su"'u '*("'

&""( "'"s w%"!"# n*+"" "&" w"'u '*'*n'u 3UU 10/924

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O&* L"("

Pon"'"%sPon"'"%s P*s%&*n So*"no "&" '"#un 196 *n"# *"'", B"+% s"!",P*s%&*n So*"no "&" '"#un 196 *n"# *"'", B"+% s"!",

 *n!**s"%"nn!" %""# (*(u" '"n"# *%# u"s "+%, s*" *n!**s"%"nn!" %""# (*(u" '"n"# *%# u"s "+%, s*" %" *n+"u (*(u" s*uu# '"n"# &% In&on*s%", *n+"u &""' %" *n+"u (*(u" s*uu# '"n"# &% In&on*s%", *n+"u &""'

(*(*% (""n 250 8u'" 8%w", &"n s"!" #"n!" un!" 10) 8u'"(*(*% (""n 250 8u'" 8%w", &"n s"!" #"n!" un!" 10) 8u'" 8%w" ... D""( n*+*%u, ("%n "n!" 3"n"4 ("%n "%. 8%w" ... D""( n*+*%u, ("%n "n!" 3"n"4 ("%n "%. P*("'"s"n *"#%"n '*u'"(" on'"s*s% *'*n'"n+"nP*("'"s"n *"#%"n '*u'"(" on'"s*s% *'*n'"n+"n

&*n+"n (o" "n+s" In&on*s%" &"n #"n!" &""' &%s*'u8u% 8%"&*n+"n (o" "n+s" In&on*s%" &"n #"n!" &""' &%s*'u8u% 8%"&%("su&"n un'u (*n+"'u *"#%"n &*(% (*n8"+"&%("su&"n un'u (*n+"'u *"#%"n &*(% (*n8"+"*s*#"'"n %u.*s*#"'"n %u.

K*'%&"s*'u8u"n 'oo#'oo# "+"(".K*'%&"s*'u8u"n 'oo#'oo# "+"(". P*(%n'""n &% ""n+"n %u%u !"n+ '%n++" &% w%"!"#P*(%n'""n &% ""n+"n %u%u !"n+ '%n++" &% w%"!"#

 *o'""n &"n **n&%&%"n '%n++%. *o'""n &"n **n&%&%"n '%n++%.

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O&* B"u

An'%n"'"%sAn'%n"'"%s :"#un 1967 P*s%&*n Su#"'o (*n"n&"'"n+"n% Un%'*& N"'%ons:"#un 1967 P*s%&*n Su#"'o (*n"n&"'"n+"n% Un%'*& N"'%ons

D*$"""'%on on Pou"'%on *s"(" 29 *(%(%n "%n &%D*$"""'%on on Pou"'%on *s"(" 29 *(%(%n "%n &%&un%".&un%".

P*s%&*n Su#"'o &""( %&"'on!" '"n++" 16 A+us'us 1967P*s%&*n Su#"'o &""( %&"'on!" '"n++" 16 A+us'us 1967(*n!"'""n; In&on*s%" #"us *n"*n" (*(*#"'%"n(*n!"'""n; In&on*s%" #"us *n"*n" (*(*#"'%"nus"#" *("'"s"n *"#%"n.us"#" *("'"s"n *"#%"n.

D*""s% (*n+"u% *n*n'u"n 8u("# &"n 8"" *"#%"nD*""s% (*n+"u% *n*n'u"n 8u("# &"n 8"" *"#%"n"n" s*"+"% #" &"s" ("nus%"."n" s*"+"% #" &"s" ("nus%".

P*(*n'u"n L*("+" K*u"+" B**n$"n" N"s%on" "&"P*(*n'u"n L*("+" K*u"+" B**n$"n" N"s%on" "&"O'o* 196<.O'o* 196<.

P*(*n'u"n B"&"n Koo&%n"s% K*u"+" B**n$"n" N"s%on"P*(*n'u"n B"&"n Koo&%n"s% K*u"+" B**n$"n" N"s%on" "&" '"#un 1970. "&" '"#un 1970.

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O'ono(% &"*"#O'ono(% &"*"#

K*%8""n *(*%n'"# &"*"#K*%8""n *(*%n'"# &"*"#

Isu u'"("; u"%'"s su(* &"!" ("nus%"Isu u'"("; u"%'"s su(* &"!" ("nus%"

 *n&u&u '*u'"(" *s*#"'"n, *n&u&u '*u'"(" *s*#"'"n,  *n&%&%"n, *n&%&%"n,*ono(%, &"n (*n'" ("s%# #"us &%'%n+"'"n*ono(%, &"n (*n'" ("s%# #"us &%'%n+"'"n

"+" *n&u&u &""' (*n8"&% *"u &"n $"on"+" *n&u&u &""' (*n8"&% *"u &"n $"on

 *"u *("n+un"n !"n+ *-%s%*n &"n *-*'%-. *"u *("n+un"n !"n+ *-%s%*n &"n *-*'%-.

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09/27/1509/27/15 <<

O'ono(% &"*"#O'ono(% &"*"#

K*%8""n *(*%n'"# &"*"#K*%8""n *(*%n'"# &"*"#

Isu u'"("; u"%'"s su(* &"!" ("nus%"Isu u'"("; u"%'"s su(* &"!" ("nus%"

 *n&u&u '*u'"(" *s*#"'"n, *n&u&u '*u'"(" *s*#"'"n,  *n&%&%"n, *n&%&%"n,*ono(%, &"n (*n'" ("s%# #"us &%'%n+"'"n*ono(%, &"n (*n'" ("s%# #"us &%'%n+"'"n

"+" *n&u&u &""' (*n8"&% *"u &"n $"on"+" *n&u&u &""' (*n8"&% *"u &"n $"on

 *"u *("n+un"n !"n+ *-%s%*n &"n *-*'%-. *"u *("n+un"n !"n+ *-%s%*n &"n *-*'%-.

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09/27/1509/27/15 1010

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Achille Guillard 1885!Achille Guillard 1885!

D*(o+"-% "&""# 'u%s"n'u%s"n "'"uD*(o+"-% "&""# 'u%s"n'u%s"n "'"u

""n+"n""n+"n (*n+*n"% "!"' "'"u""n+"n""n+"n (*n+*n"% "!"' "'"u

 *n&u&u. *n&u&u.

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09/27/1509/27/15 1)1)

Donald ". #ogue 1$%3!Donald ". #ogue 1$%3!

D*(o+"-% "&""# %(u !"n+ (*(*"8"%D*(o+"-% "&""# %(u !"n+ (*(*"8"%

s*$"" s'"'%s'% &"n ("'*("'% '*n'"n+ *s",s*$"" s'"'%s'% &"n ("'*("'% '*n'"n+ *s",

o(os%s% &"n &%s'%us% *n&u&u &"no(os%s% &"n &%s'%us% *n&u&u &"n

 *u"#"n*u"#"nn!" s*"n8"n+ ("s" *u"#"n*u"#"nn!" s*"n8"n+ ("s"

(*"u% **8"n!" %(" o(on*n &*(o+"-%(*"u% **8"n!" %(" o(on*n &*(o+"-%

!"%'u *"#%"n 3-*'%%'"s4, *("'%"n!"%'u *"#%"n 3-*'%%'"s4, *("'%"n

3(o'"%'"s4, *"w%n"n, (%+"s% &"n3(o'"%'"s4, *"w%n"n, (%+"s% &"n(o%%'"s sos%".(o%%'"s sos%".

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#a&a' demografi(#a&a' demografi( "ohn Graunt"ohn Graunt

M*n+"n"%s%s &"'" *"#%"n &"n *("'%"nM*n+"n"%s%s &"'" *"#%"n &"n *("'%"n

!"n+ &%*o*# &"% $"'"'"n *("'%"n 3!"n+ &%*o*# &"% $"'"'"n *("'%"n 3bills ofbills of

mortalitymortality4 !"n+ s*'%" (%n++u &%'*%'"n o*#4 !"n+ s*'%" (%n++u &%'*%'"n o*#

 *'u+"s +**8". *'u+"s +**8".

M*n$*'us"n =#uu(#uu( '*n'"n+M*n$*'us"n =#uu(#uu( '*n'"n+

 *'u(u#"n *n&u&u *'u(u#"n *n&u&u (Natural and Political(Natural and Political

Observations, Made Upon the Bills ofObservations, Made Upon the Bills of

 Mortality Mortality, 16624., 16624.

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)lmu demografi ter*agi men+adi dua)lmu demografi ter*agi men+adi dua

D*(o+"-% (un% 3D*(o+"-% (un% 3 pure demography pure demography44

D*(o+"-% -o(" !"n+ (*n+#"s%"n '*n%D*(o+"-% -o(" !"n+ (*n+#"s%"n '*n%

'*n% un'u (*n+#%'un+ %n&%"'o%n&%"'o'*n% un'u (*n+#%'un+ %n&%"'o%n&%"'o

&*(o+"-%.&*(o+"-%.

S'u&% "'"u "n"%s%s **n&u&u"nS'u&% "'"u "n"%s%s **n&u&u"n

S'u&% (*n+*n"% #uun+"n "n'"" -"'o-"'oS'u&% (*n+*n"% #uun+"n "n'"" -"'o-"'o *u"#"n *n&u&u &"n -"'o-"'o *u"#"n *n&u&u &"n -"'o-"'o

 *("n+un"n. *("n+un"n.

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2. :*o%'*o% **n&u&u"n; D"%2. :*o%'*o% **n&u&u"n; D"%

M"'#us * N*oM"'#us%"nM"'#us * N*oM"'#us%"n

,eori 'e&endudu'an,eori 'e&endudu'an

#uun+"n "n'"" *n&u&u &"n *'*"'"s"n#uun+"n "n'"" *n&u&u &"n *'*"'"s"n

su(* ""(/"n+"n 3*n&u&u o'%(u(4su(* ""(/"n+"n 3*n&u&u o'%(u(4

#uun+"n "n'"" *n&u&u &"#uun+"n "n'"" *n&u&u &"n %n+un+"nn %n+un+"n

33carrying capacitycarrying capacity/&"!" &uun+4/&"!" &uun+4

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09/27/1509/27/15 1717

:#o("s >o*' M"'#us; :*o%:#o("s >o*' M"'#us; :*o%

K**%#"n P*n&u&u K**%#"n P*n&u&u 

M*n+*("n+"n *(%%"n !"n+ su&"#M*n+*("n+"n *(%%"n !"n+ su&"#

&%*("n+"n o*# "!"#n!", D"n%* M"'#us,&%*("n+"n o*# "!"#n!", D"n%* M"'#us,

(*n+*n"% #uun+"n "n'"" *n&u&u &"n(*n+*n"% #uun+"n "n'"" *n&u&u &"n

 "n+"n. "n+"n.

D%'*%'"n *'"(" "% s*"+"%D%'*%'"n *'"(" "% s*"+"%  Essay on the Essay on the

 Principle of Population Principle of Population 3179<4.3179<4.

Over population theoryOver population theory

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09/27/1509/27/15 1<1<

,iga &ro&osisi *esar ,.. althus,iga &ro&osisi *esar ,.. althus

1.1. P*n&u&u &%"'"s% o*# su(*su(*P*n&u&u &%"'"s% o*# su(*su(*sus%s'*ns%/"n+"n.sus%s'*ns%/"n+"n.

2.2. P*n&u&u &*n+"n s*n&%%n!" ""n (*n%n+"' ""uP*n&u&u &*n+"n s*n&%%n!" ""n (*n%n+"' ""u

su(*su(* sus%s'*ns% (*n%n+"', *$u"% ""usu(*su(* sus%s'*ns% (*n%n+"', *$u"% ""u"&" *n+#"("'."&" *n+#"("'.

).). P*n+#"("' '*s*u', &"n *n+#"("' !"n+ (*n*"nP*n+#"("' '*s*u', &"n *n+#"("' !"n+ (*n*"n*u"'"n **("n+"n *n&u&u, s*'" *n"#"n*u"'"n **("n+"n *n&u&u, s*'" *n"#"n

&"("n!" "&" '%n+"' sus%s'*ns%, s*(u"n!" &""'&"("n!" "&" '%n+"' sus%s'*ns%, s*(u"n!" &""'&%*$"#"n (*"u% *'"#"n"n (o", *8"#"'"n, &"n&%*$"#"n (*"u% *'"#"n"n (o", *8"#"'"n, &"n*s*n+s"""n.*s*n+s"""n.

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09/27/1509/27/15 1919

Penda&at althus /ang ter'enalPenda&at althus /ang ter'enal

K""u '%&" "&" #""n+"n ("" *n&u&uK""u '%&" "&" #""n+"n ("" *n&u&u

""n 'u(u# (*nuu' &**' uu s*&"n+"n""n 'u(u# (*nuu' &**' uu s*&"n+"n

su(*su(* "n+"n #"n!" ""nsu(*su(* "n+"n #"n!" ""n

 **("n+ (*nuu' &**' #%'un+. **("n+ (*nuu' &**' #%'un+.

DE>E: HI:UNG ; 1,2,),,5,6 &s'DE>E: UKU> ; 1,2,,<,16 &s'

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09/27/1509/27/15 2020

ontohontoh

L*&""n *n&u&u 3L*&""n *n&u&u 3 population boom population boom4 &% oon% "u Eo",4 &% oon% "u Eo",A(*%" U'"". "n+ '"n"#n!" s"n+"' u"s &"n "!" ""nA(*%" U'"". "n+ '"n"#n!" s"n+"' u"s &"n "!" ""nsu(*su(* ""(. P*n&u&u **("n+ &*n+"n "("'su(*su(* ""(. P*n&u&u **("n+ &*n+"n "("'

 *s"', (*n8"&% '%+" "% %"' &""( &u" 324 ""&, 111 8u'" *s"', (*n8"&% '%+" "% %"' &""( &u" 324 ""&, 111 8u'"o"n+ "&" '"#un 1650 (*n8"&% ))0 8u'" o"n+ "&" '"#uno"n+ "&" '"#un 1650 (*n8"&% ))0 8u'" o"n+ "&" '"#un1<50.1<50.

 Preventive check Preventive check 3*n+*"n+ *n$*+"#4; uu"n *u"+" *$%3*n+*"n+ *n$*+"#4; uu"n *u"+" *$%&"n us%" *"w%n"n '%n++%, '*u'"(" &% n*+""n*+"" Eo"&"n us%" *"w%n"n '%n++%, '*u'"(" &% n*+""n*+"" Eo"!"n+ su&"# ("8u %(u *n+*'"#u"nn!"..!"n+ su&"# ("8u %(u *n+*'"#u"nn!"..

 Preventive checks Preventive checks "%nn!"; #o(os*su"%'"s, *?%n"#"n, KB,"%nn!"; #o(os*su"%'"s, *?%n"#"n, KB,&"n "os% 3M"'#us '%&" (*n&uun+n!"4.&"n "os% 3M"'#us '%&" (*n&uun+n!"4.

 Positive checks Positive checks 3*n+*"n+ os%'%-4@ *"n+, *%&*(%, *n$"n"3*n+*"n+ os%'%-4@ *"n+, *%&*(%, *n$"n"""(, &"n *"""n **"n8"n+"n, !"n+ u(u(n!" '%n++% &%""(, &"n *"""n **"n8"n+"n, !"n+ u(u(n!" '%n++% &%n*+""n*+"" !"n+ *u( ("8u %(u *n+*'"#u"nn!".n*+""n*+"" !"n+ *u( ("8u %(u *n+*'"#u"nn!".

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09/27/1509/27/15 2121

Pemi'iran &ada +aman althusPemi'iran &ada +aman althus

 iminishing returns iminishing returns 3*"&""n #"s% !"n+ ("%n3*"&""n #"s% !"n+ ("%n *u"n+4 &"% '"n"#, &""( *"&""n s'"'%s 3$*'*%s *u"n+4 &"% '"n"#, &""( *"&""n s'"'%s 3$*'*%s "%us4. "%us4.

P"n&"n+"n M"'#us;P"n&"n+"n M"'#us; S*"(" su(*su(* sus%s'*ns% 8"u# (**%#%S*"(" su(*su(* sus%s'*ns% 8"u# (**%#%

*u'u#"n *n&u&u ("" *n&u&u ""n*u'u#"n *n&u&u ("" *n&u&u ""n **("n+ $*"' un'u (*n$""% *s*%("n+"n **("n+ $*"' un'u (*n$""% *s*%("n+"n

&*n+"n su(*su(* sus%s'*ns% !"n+ "&".&*n+"n su(*su(* sus%s'*ns% !"n+ "&". K""u su(*su(* sus%s'*ns% &%'%n+"'"n (""K""u su(*su(* sus%s'*ns% &%'%n+"'"n (""

 *n&u&u &""' 'u(u# *%# $*"' "+%. *n&u&u &""' 'u(u# *%# $*"' "+%.

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K%'% '*#"&" M"'#us 3An'%K%'% '*#"&" M"'#us 3An'%

M"'#us%"n, A"& 194M"'#us%"n, A"& 194 M"'#us '%&" s*'u8u un&"n+un&"n+ *(%s%n"nM"'#us '%&" s*'u8u un&"n+un&"n+ *(%s%n"n

33 poor la!s poor la!s4 !"n+ (*(*% "n'u"n *"&" o"n+4 !"n+ (*(*% "n'u"n *"&" o"n+(%s%n.(%s%n.

M"'#us **n&""' "#w" "n'u"n *"&" o"n+M"'#us **n&""' "#w" "n'u"n *"&" o"n+(%s%n s"(" &*n+"n (*n%n+"'"n su(*su(*(%s%n s"(" &*n+"n (*n%n+"'"n su(*su(*sus%s'*ns% o"n+o"n+ (%s%n, !"n+ "*n"n!" ""nsus%s'*ns% o"n+o"n+ (%s%n, !"n+ "*n"n!" ""n'*&oon+ un'u (*(un!"% "n" *%# "n!".'*&oon+ un'u (*(un!"% "n" *%# "n!".

M"'#us **n&""' 8%" o"n+ (%s%n '%&" &%"n'uM"'#us **n&""' 8%" o"n+ (%s%n '%&" &%"n'u("" *%"u (**" ""n *u"# &"n (**" ""n("" *%"u (**" ""n *u"# &"n (**" ""n(*n+u"n+% 8u("# "n" (**".(*n+u"n+% 8u("# "n" (**".

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09/27/1509/27/15 2)2)

riti' terhada& althusriti' terhada& althus

P*'%("n+"n *ono(%; (*n*"n"n -"'o-"'oP*'%("n+"n *ono(%; (*n*"n"n -"'o-"'os**'% **("n+"n '*noo+%, *("+%"ns**'% **("n+"n '*noo+%, *("+%"n

 **8""n &"n u"#. **8""n &"n u"#.

P*'%("n+"n &*(o+"-%; '*u'"(" *n*(u"n &"nP*'%("n+"n &*(o+"-%; '*u'"(" *n*(u"n &"n *(%%"n (*n+*n"% **("n+"n *n&u&u *(%%"n (*n+*n"% **("n+"n *n&u&u33 population trends population trends4 &"n -*'%%'"s, !"n+ *"w"n"n4 &"n -*'%%'"s, !"n+ *"w"n"n&*n+"n oos%s% "s% M"'#us (*n+*n"% *n&u&u&*n+"n oos%s% "s% M"'#us (*n+*n"% *n&u&u3'*u'"(" &% Eo"4.3'*u'"(" &% Eo"4.

K*o(o An'%M"'#us%"n **n&""' "#w"K*o(o An'%M"'#us%"n **n&""' "#w"("s""# 8u("# *n&u&u &""' &%"'"s% &*n+"n *%#("s""# 8u("# *n&u&u &""' &%"'"s% &*n+"n *%#*-*'%- (*"u% u"!" *n$*+"#"n *"#%"n.*-*'%- (*"u% u"!" *n$*+"#"n *"#%"n.

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09/27/1509/27/15 22

M"?#" Eono(% K"s% 3A"& 194M"?#" Eono(% K"s% 3A"& 194

A#% ""& 19; "su(s%"su(s% ("?#" "s% (*n+*n"% '*o%A#% ""& 19; "su(s%"su(s% ("?#" "s% (*n+*n"% '*o% *'u(u#"n *ono(% &"n *n&u&u ("%n &%*'"n!""n *'u(u#"n *ono(% &"n *n&u&u ("%n &%*'"n!""n"*n";"*n";

1.1. *'%%'"s (*nun8u"n *nuun"n.*'%%'"s (*nun8u"n *nuun"n.

2.2. E(%+"s% '*8"&% &% **"" n*+"" Eo" 3I"n&%" '*u'"("E(%+"s% '*8"&% &% **"" n*+"" Eo" 3I"n&%" '*u'"("w"'u '*8"&%w"'u '*8"&% potato famine potato famine4.4.

).). I(o "n+"n '*8"&% ""u &%*u"n.I(o "n+"n '*8"&% ""u &%*u"n.

.. P**("n+"n '*noo+%.P**("n+"n '*noo+%.

5.5. P*n+*'"#u"n ("nus%" &"n *"!""n o&u'%- ("%nP*n+*'"#u"n ("nus%" &"n *"!""n o&u'%- ("%n(*n%n+"'.(*n%n+"'.

6.6. P*u"#"n sos%" !"n+ (*"w"n *$*n&*un+"n '*#"&" #"s%P*u"#"n sos%" !"n+ (*"w"n *$*n&*un+"n '*#"&" #"s%!"n+ ("%n *u"n+ 3!"n+ ("%n *u"n+ 3diminishing returnsdiminishing returns4.4.

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09/27/1509/27/15 2525

M"s#" 319204

W""uun *"n"n ""( &""( o&us%W""uun *"n"n ""( &""( o&us%(*nun8u"n #"s% !"n+ s*("%n *u"n+,(*nun8u"n #"s% !"n+ s*("%n *u"n+,

 *"n"n ("nus%" $*n&*un+ (*n%n+"'"n #"s% "'"u *"n"n ("nus%" $*n&*un+ (*n%n+"'"n #"s% "'"u#"s% !"n+ ("%n (*n%n+"' 3#"s% !"n+ ("%n (*n%n+"' 3increasing returnsincreasing returns4.4.

P*n%n+"'"n #"s% 3ou(* o&us%4;P*n%n+"'"n #"s% 3ou(* o&us%4;

1.1.  *su(* "&" *$*n&*un+"n *su(* "&" *$*n&*un+"n e"ternal economiese"ternal economies 3"s" !"n+ '%&" '*'u'u43"s" !"n+ '%&" '*'u'u4

2.2. s*"+%"n "*n" "&"n!"s*"+%"n "*n" "&"n!" internal economiesinternal economies 3*"+"% *u"#"n !"n+ '*8"&% &""( s%s'*(3*"+"% *u"#"n !"n+ '*8"&% &""( s%s'*(

 **ono(%"n &""( n*+*%4 **ono(%"n &""( n*+*%4

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09/27/1509/27/15 2626

Per'em*angan &ere'onomianPer'em*angan &ere'onomian

1.1. P**("n+"n %(u *n+*'"#u"n &"nP**("n+"n %(u *n+*'"#u"n &"n

'*noo+%'*noo+%

2.2. P*n%n+"'"n s*s%"%s"s% "'"u *("+%"nP*n%n+"'"n s*s%"%s"s% "'"u *("+%"n

 **8""n &"n (*s%n(*s%n **8""n &"n (*s%n(*s%n

).). Lo"s% %n&us'% !"n+ ("%n "% Lo"s% %n&us'% !"n+ ("%n "% 

..

P*u"s"n 3uu"n4 %n&us'%/*us"#""nP*u"s"n 3uu"n4 %n&us'%/*us"#""n5.5. E-%s%*ns% &""( *n++un""n "#"n (*n'"#E-%s%*ns% &""( *n++un""n "#"n (*n'"#

6.6. P*"%"n o(un%"s% &"n *("s""n.P*"%"n o(un%"s% &"n *("s""n.

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09/27/1509/27/15 2727

Penda&at arshalPenda&at arshal

P*'u(u#"n *n&u&u &% Eo" ("s%#P*'u(u#"n *n&u&u &% Eo" ("s%#

 *+un" &""( 8"n+" *n&* &"n '%&" *+un" &""( 8"n+" *n&* &"n '%&"

(*n!*'u8u% *'u(u#"n *n&u&u !"n+(*n!*'u8u% *'u(u#"n *n&u&u !"n+

'%n++% &% n*+""n*+"" **("n+.'%n++% &% n*+""n*+"" **("n+.

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09/27/1509/27/15 2<2<

M"?#" Sos%"%s &"n M"C s*'" En+*sM"?#" Sos%"%s &"n M"C s*'" En+*s

3A"& 1943A"& 194  ialectic materialism ialectic materialism, s%s'*( -%s"-"' M"C &"n, s%s'*( -%s"-"' M"C &"n

En+*s, 8%" &%'*""n '*#"&" *u"#"n sos%"En+*s, 8%" &%'*""n '*#"&" *u"#"n sos%"&%s*u'&%s*u' historical materialismhistorical materialism, s*8""# ("nus%", s*8""# ("nus%"(*u""n on'%nuu( *8u"n+"n "n'" *"s &%("n"(*u""n on'%nuu( *8u"n+"n "n'" *"s &%("n"

s%s'*( sos%" s*&*#"n" &%+"n'%"n &*n+"n s%s'*(s%s'*( sos%" s*&*#"n" &%+"n'%"n &*n+"n s%s'*(sos%" !"n+ *%# ("8u 3o(*s4 s**'% #"n!"sos%" !"n+ *%# ("8u 3o(*s4 s**'% #"n!"&*n+"n **("n+n!" "u( o8u%s (*n++"n'%"n&*n+"n **("n+n!" "u( o8u%s (*n++"n'%"n+oon+"n -*o&" ("" *o(o o*'" ""n+oon+"n -*o&" ("" *o(o o*'" ""n(*n++u%n+"n +oon+"n -*o&" &""( s%s'*((*n++u%n+"n +oon+"n -*o&" &""( s%s'*("%'"%s."%'"%s.

D""( on'*sD""( on'*s historical materialismhistorical materialism M"C &"nM"C &"nEn+*s '%&" (*n+*(u""n '*o% **n&u&u"nEn+*s '%&" (*n+*(u""n '*o% **n&u&u"ns*$"" #usus.s*$"" #usus.

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09/27/1509/27/15 2929

arar

:%&" "&" #uu( un%*s" (*n+*n"%:%&" "&" #uu( un%*s" (*n+*n"% *n&u&u. P*n&u&u *%# "n!" &%'*n'u"n *n&u&u. P*n&u&u *%# "n!" &%'*n'u"no*# *"&""n sos%" &"n *ono(% !"n+ *"uo*# *"&""n sos%" &"n *ono(% !"n+ *"u

&% *"+"% ("s!"""'.&% *"+"% ("s!"""'. M"s""#("s""# **n&u&u"n,M"s""#("s""# **n&u&u"n,

*s*n+s"""n/*(%s%n"n, &"n **%#"n*s*n+s"""n/*(%s%n"n, &"n **%#"n

 **8" (*u""n #"s%#"s% &"% s%s'*( **8" (*u""n #"s%#"s% &"% s%s'*(*ono(% "%'"%s, &"n ""n &""' &%s**s"%"n*ono(% "%'"%s, &"n ""n &""' &%s**s"%"n&*n+"n (**o+"n%s"s% ("s!"""'.&*n+"n (**o+"n%s"s% ("s!"""'.

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 N*oM"'#us%"n 3A"& 19 &"n 204 N*oM"'#us%"n 3A"& 19 &"n 204

P*'u(u#"n *n&u&u &""' &%"'"s% &*n+"nP*'u(u#"n *n&u&u &""' &%"'"s% &*n+"n

(*"u"n *("'"s"n *"#%"n.(*"u"n *("'"s"n *"#%"n.

M"'#us s*n&%% (*n*n'"n+ *("'"s"nM"'#us s*n&%% (*n*n'"n+ *("'"s"n

*"#%"n.*"#%"n.

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). K*'*"%'"n "n'"" "n"%s%s

&*(o+"-% &"n *("n+un"n

UMLAH

S:>UK:U> 

PE>SEBA>AN

SOSIAL

EKONOMI

BUDAA

LINGKUNGAN

POLI:IK 

KEAMANAN

KELAHI>AN

KEMA:IAN

PE>PINDAHAN

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Analisis demografiAnalisis demografi

An"%s%s *n&u&u =&"% "#%( * %"n+ uuAn"%s%s *n&u&u =&"% "#%( * %"n+ uu

33 from the !omb to the tomb from the !omb to the tomb4 "*n" (*%u'%4 "*n" (*%u'%

"n"%s%s *n&u&u "&" s*uu# s%us"n"%s%s *n&u&u "&" s*uu# s%us

*#%&u"n ("nus%" s*8" &"% "n&un+"n*#%&u"n ("nus%" s*8" &"% "n&un+"n

s"("% (*n%n++".s"("% (*n%n++".

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. M"n-""' "n"%s%s &*(o+"-%. M"n-""' "n"%s%s &*(o+"-%

1.1. M*(*"8"% u"n'%'"s &"n &%s'%us% *n&u&u &""( su"'uM*(*"8"% u"n'%'"s &"n &%s'%us% *n&u&u &""( su"'u&"*"# '*'*n'u.&"*"# '*'*n'u.

2.2. M*n8*"s"n *'u(u#"n *n&u&u "&" ("s" "("u,M*n8*"s"n *'u(u#"n *n&u&u "&" ("s" "("u,*$*n&*un+"nn!", &"n *s*""nn!" &*n+"n s*"%*$*n&*un+"nn!", &"n *s*""nn!" &*n+"n s*"%

 "%n!" &"n &*n+"n &"'" !"n+ '*s*&%". "%n!" &"n &*n+"n &"'" !"n+ '*s*&%".).). M*n+*("n+"n #uun+"n s*" "%"' "n'""M*n+*("n+"n #uun+"n s*" "%"' "n'""

 **("n+"n *n&u&u &*n+"n *("$"(("$"( "s* **("n+"n *n&u&u &*n+"n *("$"(("$"( "s*o+"n%s"s% sos%", *ono(%, u&"!", %n+un+"n &"n "%no+"n%s"s% sos%", *ono(%, u&"!", %n+un+"n &"n "%n"%n."%n.

.. P*(*%""n *'u(u#"n *n&u&u 3o!*s% *n&u&u4P*(*%""n *'u(u#"n *n&u&u 3o!*s% *n&u&u4 "&" ("s" !"n+ ""n &"'"n+ &"n *(un+%n"n "&" ("s" !"n+ ""n &"'"n+ &"n *(un+%n"n*(un+%n"n ons*u*ns%n!".*(un+%n"n ons*u*ns%n!".

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5. K*%8""n **n&u&u"n &%5. K*%8""n **n&u&u"n &%

In&on*s%"In&on*s%"

O&* L"("O&* L"("

O&* B"uO&* B"u

O'ono(% &"*"#O'ono(% &"*"#

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O&* L"("

Pon"'"%sPon"'"%s P*s%&*n So*"no "&" '"#un 196 *n"# *"'", B"+% s"!",P*s%&*n So*"no "&" '"#un 196 *n"# *"'", B"+% s"!",

 *n!**s"%"nn!" %""# (*(u" '"n"# *%# u"s "+%, s*" *n!**s"%"nn!" %""# (*(u" '"n"# *%# u"s "+%, s*" %" *n+"u (*(u" s*uu# '"n"# &% In&on*s%", *n+"u &""' %" *n+"u (*(u" s*uu# '"n"# &% In&on*s%", *n+"u &""'(*(*% (""n 250 8u'" 8%w", &"n s"!" #"n!" un!" 10) 8u'"(*(*% (""n 250 8u'" 8%w", &"n s"!" #"n!" un!" 10) 8u'" 8%w" ... D""( n*+*%u, ("%n "n!" 3"n"4 ("%n "%. 8%w" ... D""( n*+*%u, ("%n "n!" 3"n"4 ("%n "%.

P*("'"s"n *"#%"n '*u'"(" on'"s*s% *'*n'"n+"nP*("'"s"n *"#%"n '*u'"(" on'"s*s% *'*n'"n+"n&*n+"n (o" "n+s" In&on*s%" &"n #"n!" &""' &%s*'u8u% 8%"&*n+"n (o" "n+s" In&on*s%" &"n #"n!" &""' &%s*'u8u% 8%"&%("su&"n un'u (*n+"'u *"#%"n &*(% (*n8"+"&%("su&"n un'u (*n+"'u *"#%"n &*(% (*n8"+"*s*#"'"n %u.*s*#"'"n %u.

K*'%&"s*'u8u"n 'oo#'oo# "+"(".K*'%&"s*'u8u"n 'oo#'oo# "+"(". P*(%n'""n &% ""n+"n %u%u !"n+ '%n++" &% w%"!"#P*(%n'""n &% ""n+"n %u%u !"n+ '%n++" &% w%"!"#

 *o'""n &"n **n&%&%"n '%n++%. *o'""n &"n **n&%&%"n '%n++%.

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O&* B"u

An'%n"'"%sAn'%n"'"%s :"#un 1967 P*s%&*n Su#"'o (*n"n&"'"n+"n% Un%'*& N"'%ons:"#un 1967 P*s%&*n Su#"'o (*n"n&"'"n+"n% Un%'*& N"'%ons

D*$"""'%on on Pou"'%on *s"(" 29 *(%(%n "%n &%D*$"""'%on on Pou"'%on *s"(" 29 *(%(%n "%n &%&un%".&un%".

P*s%&*n Su#"'o &""( %&"'on!" '"n++" 16 A+us'us 1967P*s%&*n Su#"'o &""( %&"'on!" '"n++" 16 A+us'us 1967(*n!"'""n; In&on*s%" #"us *n"*n" (*(*#"'%"n(*n!"'""n; In&on*s%" #"us *n"*n" (*(*#"'%"nus"#" *("'"s"n *"#%"n.us"#" *("'"s"n *"#%"n.

D*""s% (*n+"u% *n*n'u"n 8u("# &"n 8"" *"#%"nD*""s% (*n+"u% *n*n'u"n 8u("# &"n 8"" *"#%"n"n" s*"+"% #" &"s" ("nus%"."n" s*"+"% #" &"s" ("nus%".

P*(*n'u"n L*("+" K*u"+" B**n$"n" N"s%on" "&"P*(*n'u"n L*("+" K*u"+" B**n$"n" N"s%on" "&"O'o* 196<.O'o* 196<. P*(*n'u"n B"&"n Koo&%n"s% K*u"+" B**n$"n" N"s%on"P*(*n'u"n B"&"n Koo&%n"s% K*u"+" B**n$"n" N"s%on"

 "&" '"#un 1970. "&" '"#un 1970.

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O'ono(% &"*"#O'ono(% &"*"#

K*%8""n *(*%n'"# &"*"#K*%8""n *(*%n'"# &"*"#

Isu u'"("; u"%'"s su(* &"!" ("nus%"Isu u'"("; u"%'"s su(* &"!" ("nus%"

 *n&u&u '*u'"(" *s*#"'"n, *n&u&u '*u'"(" *s*#"'"n,  *n&%&%"n, *n&%&%"n,

*ono(%, &"n (*n'" ("s%# #"us &%'%n+"'"n*ono(%, &"n (*n'" ("s%# #"us &%'%n+"'"n

"+" *n&u&u &""' (*n8"&% *"u &"n $"on"+" *n&u&u &""' (*n8"&% *"u &"n $"on

 *"u *("n+un"n !"n+ *-%s%*n &"n *-*'%-. *"u *("n+un"n !"n+ *-%s%*n &"n *-*'%-.

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